[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 December 23 issued 2330 UT on 09 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 10 10:30:09 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0955UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 1319UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec
Activity R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 128/81 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Dec was at the R1 level
due to two M1 flares from AR3511(S23W56, beta-gamma). This region
has recently shown initial growth then a decline in its leader
spots towards the end of the UT day. Solar region AR3513(N19E15,
beta-gamma) has shown growth in its trailer spots with some decline
in its intermediate spots. There are currently eight numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 10-12 Dec, with the chance of an isolated
R2 flare. No significant Earth directed CMEs have been observed.
A large north directed CME, out of the ecliptic plane, was observed
from 09/0436UT associated with an erupting solar prominence on
the north-northwest limb and is not considered to be Earth directed.
Two faint CMEs directed to the southwest were observed from 09/0512UT
and 09/1012UT. These minor CMEs could not be definitively associated
with on disk activity and model runs were conducted assuming
AR3511 as the origin. The model runs of these faint minor slow
CMEs showed an Earth miss. A slow southeast CME was observed
from 09/1212UT associated with a filament eruption centered at
S35E65 during the interval 09/0845-1130UT, with the subsequent
model run showing an Earth miss. The solar wind speed on UT day
09-Dec decreased, ranging from 467 to 384 km/s and is currently
near 370 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 5 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was
+4 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease over
10-Dec. A narrow coronal hole spans the solar central meridian
in the southern solar hemisphere and may cause a mild increase
in wind speed from 11-Dec. An isolated coronal hole is visible
near the solar equator in the eastern solar hemisphere.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 0 10000000
Darwin 0 01100000
Townsville 1 11100010
Learmonth 1 10000101
Alice Springs 0 00100001
Gingin 1 11100100
Canberra 0 00100000
Hobart 1 11200000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 01100010
Casey 15 44522110
Mawson 6 12311221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1001 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Dec 6 G0
11 Dec 14 G0
12 Dec 13 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 09-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 10-12 Dec, with a mild increase in geomagnetic activity
expected due to a coronal hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 09-Dec were
mostly normal. Normal HF communication conditions are expected
over 10-12 Dec. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Dec 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
11 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
12 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 128 was issued on
9 December and is current for 9-11 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were near predicted monthly values in the Australian region
on UT day 09-Dec. Sporadic E observed at times at Canberra. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 10-12 Dec.
Mild depressions of 10-15% may be experienced early in the UT
day for the southern Australian region. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 447 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 168000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list