[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 December 23 issued 2346 UT on 08 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 9 10:46:13 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.4 2307UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Dec was at the R2 level
due to an M5.4 flare at 08/2307UT. The flare was a short duration
event and appears to be from the leader spots of solar region
AR3511(S23W43, beta-gamma). Earlier in the UT day several C-class
flares were observed from AR3513(N20E30, beta-gamma) and AR3511(S23W43,
beta-gamma). Solar region AR3513 and AR3511 are both growing
and AR3513 is currently the largest region on the solar disk.
Small solar region AR3514(N12E40, beta-gamma) has shown slight
development. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 09-11 Dec, with the chance of further isolated R2
flaring. A solar filament eruption was observed in SDO304 imagery
at N50W30-N30W60 during the interval 08/0018-0238UT and a small
5 degree long filament eruption was observed in GONG H-alpha
imagery at 08/0510UT located at S15E05. No significantly Earth
directed CMEs have been observed. A southwest farside CME was
in progress at the start of the UT day. Another southwest CME
was observed from 08/0200UT in LASCO C2 and at this stage could
not be correlated to on disk activity. A narrow northwest CME
was observed from 08/0417UT in LASCO C2 associate with the filament
eruption in the north west solar quadrant. This has been modelled
as mostly non Earth directed, with the CME passing above the
Earth, with a slight graze possible 11/1900UT. No CME appeared
to be evident following the small filament eruption at S15E05.
The solar wind speed on UT day 08-Dec decreased, ranging from
427 to 485 km/s and is currently near 424 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north
south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -4 nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to initially decrease over 09-10 Dec due to
waning coronal hole effects. A narrow coronal hole spans the
solar central meridian in the southern solar hemisphere and may
cause a mild increase in wind speed from 11-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11111121
Cocos Island 2 10000221
Darwin 1 00101111
Townsville 4 11211121
Learmonth 3 10111122
Alice Springs 3 11111121
Gingin 3 10111221
Canberra 2 01210111
Hobart 4 11211112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 00100111
Casey 17 34532232
Mawson 13 12222353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1110 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 6 G0
10 Dec 6 G0
11 Dec 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 08-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
observed at Casey and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 09-11 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 08-Dec were
mostly normal. Normal HF communication conditions are expected
over 09-11 Dec. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
10 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
11 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values in the Australian region on UT day 08-Dec. Sporadic
E observed at times at Hobart and Canberra. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 09-11 Dec. A short duration
shortwave fadeout was observed for eastern Australian locations
in association with the R2 flare at 08/2307UT. Isolated minor
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 503 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 99800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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