[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 December 23 issued 2331 UT on 07 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 8 10:31:04 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Dec was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently eight numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3511 (S23W31, beta-gamma)
is the most magnetically complex region on the solar disk and
has shown decay in its leader spots. AR3513 (N20E43, gamma) has
exhibited growth in its trailer spots. AR3511 and AR3513 produced
all the C-class flares observed over the UT day. AR3508 (S15W41,
beta) has shown some spot development in its leader spots. All
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 08-10 Dec. Several CMEs
were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. A halo CME
was observed, visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery
from 07/1336UT. Analysis indicates this is a farside event and
not geoeffective. A filament eruption was observed, visible in
H-alpha imagery near N20E30 at 07/0204UT. A subsequent associated
CME was observed, visible in coronagraph imagery from 07/0312UT.
Modelling indicates this low velocity CME is not geoeffective.
CMEs observed to the north at 07/0048UT,to the west at 07/0612UT
and to the southwest at 07/2109UT are also not considered to
be Earth-directed. The solar wind speed on UT day 07-Dec decreased,
ranging from 475 to 565 km/s and is currently near 485 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5
nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -3
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease over 08-10 Dec
due to waning coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11111012
Cocos Island 2 11011011
Darwin 3 11111012
Townsville 3 11121012
Learmonth 5 21122122
Alice Springs 3 20111012
Gingin 4 21111022
Canberra 3 11111012
Hobart 3 11111012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Dec :
Macquarie Island 21 66110011
Casey 16 44432223
Mawson 20 43323245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3222 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Dec 8 G0
09 Dec 6 G0
10 Dec 6 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 77 was issued on 6 December
and is current for 7-8 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 07-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated
periods of G2 observed at Macquarie Island and an isolated period
of G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
08-10 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 07-Dec were
mostly normal. Normal HF communication conditions are expected
over 08-10 Dec. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Dec 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
09 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
10 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 125 was issued on
5 December and is current for 6-8 Dec. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 127 was issued on 6 December and is current for 7-8 Dec.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly
values in the Australian region on UT day 07-Dec. Sporadic E
was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 08-10 Dec. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 596 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 155000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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