[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 December 23 issued 2330 UT on 06 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 7 10:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.1 0541UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.3 2144UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Dec was at the R1 level
due to an M2.3 flare at 06/2144UT and an M2.1 flare at 06/0541UT.
Both R1 flares were produced by AR3513 (N20E57, beta-gamma).
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3513 was responsible
for the majority of the flaring activity over the UT day and
has exhibited spot development. AR3511 (S23W17, beta-gamma) has
shown decay in its leader spots. AR3507 (N09W24, beta) has shown
decay in its trailer spots, whilst its leader spots have exhibited
some minor growth. Newly numbered AR3514 (N09E68, beta) has shown
spot growth over the UT day. A small unnumbered region is visible
near N22W67 (beta) and appears unstable. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R1 level over 07-09 Dec, with a chance of R2. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. A filament eruption was observed, visible
in H-alpha imagery near N23E10 from 06/0449UT. However, no associated
CME has been observed from this eruption. The solar wind speed
on UT day 06-Dec decreased, ranging from 550 to 640 km/s and
is currently near 560 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decrease over 07-09 Dec due to waning coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22223212
Cocos Island 4 22112201
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 8 22223222
Learmonth 9 22223322
Alice Springs 8 22223213
Gingin 9 22223322
Canberra 6 22222212
Hobart 8 22323212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Dec :
Macquarie Island 17 22445312
Casey 34 66533323
Mawson 25 34443543
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3223 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Dec 18 G0, slight chance G1
08 Dec 10 G0
09 Dec 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 77 was issued on 6 December
and is current for 7-8 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 06-Dec. G1-G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 07-09 Dec, with a slight chance
of G1 on 07-Dec due to the possible arrival of a weak CME associated
with a solar filament eruption.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 06-Dec were
normal. Fair to normal HF radio communication conditions are
expected on 07-Dec for middle to high latitudes, with normal
conditions at low latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions are
expected over 08-09 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Dec 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
08 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
09 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 125 was issued on
5 December and is current for 6-8 Dec. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 127 was issued on 6 December and is current for 7-8 Dec.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly
values in the Australian region on UT day 06-Dec. Sporadic E
was observed overnight at Cocos Island. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values over 07-09 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 565 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 222000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list