[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 December 23 issued 0645 UT on 06 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 6 17:45:28 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** GREEN ** ION: ** GREEN **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
+++ Reissued for corrected CME analysis and geomagnetic forecast +++
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0644UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 2110UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.4 2120UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Dec was at the R1 level
due to M1 flare activity from new solar region AR3513(N20E72,
beta). This region also produced 11 C class flares in the past
24 hours. This small new region is currently growing quite rapidly.
Solar region AR3510(S15W02, beta-gamma) is growing and has produced
four C class flares. Nearby AR3511(S23W02, beta) has so far been
relatively flare quiet and is also growing. A thin solar filament
located at S25E10 to S15W10 erupted over 05/0600-0700UT, with no
significant CME appearing to follow. A mostly west directed bright CME
observed in LASCO C2 from 05/0748UT, and has been reanalysed to be
associated with breaking plasma arches on the western solar limb
at S17 from 05/0724UT in SDO imagery probably from AR3500 behind
the south western solar limb. Event modelling shows this event as an
Earth miss. It is possible that this behind the limb CME masked the
CME associated with the filament eruption. Another solar filament with
centre located at N42W35 lifted off later in the UT day during the interval
05/1930-2200UT. A narrow north west CME was subsequently observed
from 05/2112UT and has been modelled mostly as an Earth miss, with
only a weak effect possible around middle of the UT day on 09-Dec. There
are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk.
All other sunspot regions are stable. Solar activity is expected to be
at the R1 level over 06-08 Dec, with a slight chance for an R2 flare.
The solar wind speed on UT day 05-Dec increased, ranging from 498
to 666 km/s and is currently near 608 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 16 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -11 nT. The solar wind total field (Bt) gradually
decreased over the UT day following yesterdays enhancement. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain elevated on 06-Dec due to the continuing
influence of a wind stream from a large equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 14 33333323
Cocos Island 9 23232312
Darwin 12 33233313
Townsville 11 24332222
Learmonth 13 33233323
Alice Springs 14 33333323
Gingin 13 33233323
Canberra 11 33332222
Hobart 15 34333323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Dec :
Macquarie Island 24 33265322
Casey 40 57543333
Mawson 36 45554345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 75 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 6 1222 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 14 G0
07 Dec 18 G0, slight chance G1
08 Dec 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 05-Dec. In the Antarctic region G1-G2 periods were
observed at Macquarie Island, G1-G3 periods were observed at Casey,
with G1 periods were observed at Mawson. A coronal hole wind stream
is currently causing a mild increase in geomagnetic activity. Generally
G0 conditions are expected for 06-Dec. On 07-Dec the geomagnetic field
is expected to be mostly G0, with G1 periods possible, due to a possible
weak CME associated with a solar filament eruption.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 05-Dec were
fair to normal. Fair to normal HF radio communication conditions
are expected on 06-08 Dec for middle to high latitudes, with normal
conditions at low latitudes. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 120 Near predicted monthly values
08 Dec 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 125 was issued on
5 December and is current for 6-8 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian
region on UT day 05-Dec. Southern Australian region MUFs were depressed
20% after local dawn this morning. Sporadic E was observed overnight at
Brisbane, Hobart and Cocos Island. MUFs are expected to be initially depressed
15-20% for southern Australian region then recovering, with northern
Australian region MUFs remaining near normal. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values on 07-08 Dec. Isolated minor shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 539 km/sec Density: 14.0 p/cc Temp: 349000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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