[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 December 23 issued 2344 UT on 05 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 6 10:44:33 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0644UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 2110UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.4 2120UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Dec was at the R1 level
due to M1 flare activity from new solar region AR3513(N20E72,
beta). This region also produced 11 C class flares in the past
24 hours. This small new region is currently growing quite rapidly.
Solar region AR3510(S15W02, beta-gamma) is growing and has produced
four C class flares. Nearby AR3511(S23W02, beta) has so far been
relatively flare quiet and is also growing. A thin solar filament
located at S25E10 to S15W10 erupted over 05/0600-0700UT, with
a subsequent mostly west directed bright CME observed in LASCO
C2 from 05/0748UT. Event modelling shows an Earth component arrival
at 07/1300UT +/- 12 hours. Another solar filament with centre
located at N42W35 lifted off later in the UT day during the interval
05/1930-2200UT. A narrow north west CME was subsequently observed
from 05/2112UT. Event modelling will be conducted as further
coronagraph images become available, at this stage the CME does
not appear significant. There are currently eight numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions
are stable. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level
over 06-08 Dec, with a slight chance for an R2 flare. The solar
wind speed on UT day 05-Dec increased, ranging from 498 to 666
km/s and is currently near 608 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 16 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -11 nT. The solar wind total field (Bt)
gradually decreased over the UT day following yesterdays enhancement.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated on 06-Dec
due to the continuing influence of a wind stream from a large
equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 14 33333323
Cocos Island 9 23232312
Darwin 12 33233313
Townsville 11 24332222
Learmonth 13 33233323
Alice Springs 14 33333323
Gingin 13 33233323
Canberra 11 33332222
Hobart 14 34333322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Dec :
Macquarie Island 24 33265322
Casey 40 57543333
Mawson 36 45554345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 71 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 6 1222 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 14 G0
07 Dec 50 Initially G0, increasing to G1-G2 second half
of UT day
08 Dec 40 Initially G1-G2, then declining
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 05-Dec. In the Antarctic region G1-G2 periods
were observed at Macquarie Island, G1-G3 periods were observed
at Casey, with G1 periods were observed at Mawson. A coronal
hole wind stream is currently causing a mild increase in geomagnetic
activity. Generally G0 conditions are expected for 06-Dec. On
07-Dec the geomagnetic field is expected to be initially G0,
increasing to G1-G2 conditions during the second half of the
UT day due to the expected arrival of a CME associated with a
solar filament eruption.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Dec Normal Normal-poor Normal-poor
08 Dec Normal Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 05-Dec were
fair to normal. Fair to normal HF radio communication conditions
are expected on 06-Dec for middle to high latitudes, with normal
conditions at low latitudes. Degraded conditions expected second
half of UT day 07-Dec and into 08-Dec for middle to high latitudes
due to expected geomagnetic storm activity. Isolated minor shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 120 Near predicted monthly values
08 Dec 40 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 125 was issued on
5 December and is current for 6-8 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian
region on UT day 05-Dec. Southern Australian region MUFs were
depressed 20% after local dawn this morning. Sporadic E was observed
overnight at Brisbane, Hobart and Cocos Island. MUFs are expected
to be initially depressed 15-20% for southern Australian region
then recovering, with northern Australian region MUFs remaining
near normal. Degraded conditions are expected from late 07-08
Dec due to anticipated geomagnetic storm activity. Isolated minor
shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 539 km/sec Density: 14.0 p/cc Temp: 349000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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