[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 December 23 issued 2330 UT on 04 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 5 10:30:08 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Dec was at the R0 level
with the largest flare a minor C8.1 from solar region AR3511(S23E11,
beta) at 04/0126UT. Solar regions currently on the visible solar
disk are small to medium in size. Solar region AR3510(S15E11,
beta) and AR3511 are currently growing. Region AR3500(S19W83,
beta) that produced an R2 flare on 28-Nov continues to decay
and is rotating off disk. Small spots have emerged below the
main spot of region AR3507(N09E05, beta). There are currently
eight numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. All
other sunspot regions are stable. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level over 05-07 Dec, with a slight chance of
an isolated R1 flare due to the pair of developing solar regions.
In GONG H-alpha imagery a thin 15 degree long solar filament
located at S22E10 may have partially lifted off during the interval
04/0551-0745UT. A smaller 5 degree long filament located at S10W00
erupted at 04/1638UT. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed
in the past 24 hours. An east directed CME was observed in LASCO
C2 from 04/0700UT possibly associated with the earlier filament
eruption. Event modelling shows an Earth miss, with only a slight
grazing impact possible on 06-Dec. The solar wind speed on UT
day 04-Dec was elevated and steady, ranging from 486 to 581 km/s
and is currently near 560 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +12 to -9 nT. The IMF Bz component briefly fluctuated
southward at times during the first half of the UT day. The solar
wind total field (Bt) was more enhanced later in the UT day possibly
indicating a weak indistinct CME component transient. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain elevated 05-06 Dec due to a
large equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 23332222
Cocos Island 5 12321111
Darwin 9 23332112
Townsville 11 23432222
Learmonth 10 23332222
Alice Springs 8 12332122
Gingin 8 22332122
Canberra 11 13432222
Hobart 11 13432222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Dec :
Macquarie Island 13 13344221
Casey 36 46654223
Mawson 22 25534233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 72 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 2231 2312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Dec 18 G0, chance G1
06 Dec 14 G0, chance G1
07 Dec 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 75 was issued on 3 December
and is current for 4-5 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 04-Dec. In the Antarctic region
G1-G2 periods were observed at Casey and G1 periods were observed
at Mawson. G0, with the chance of G1 periods are expected on
05-06 Dec due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 07-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair
06 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 04-Dec were
normal. Fair to normal HF radio communication conditions are
expected over 05-06 Dec for middle to high latitudes due to an
expected mild increase in geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal
HF conditions are expected on 07-Dec. Isolated minor shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Dec 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Dec 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Dec 95 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced in the Australian region on UT
day 04-Dec. No significant overnight geomagnetic activity was
observed on 04-Dec. MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted
monthly values 05-07 Dec, with brief mild depressions possible
after local dawn during 05-06 Dec. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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