[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 December 23 issued 2330 UT on 03 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 4 10:30:09 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 136/90 134/88 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Dec was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently eight
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3500 (S18W69, beta-gamma) remains the largest region
on the solar disk and has decayed. AR3507 (N10E16, beta-gamma)
has exhibited spot development over the UT day and increased
in magnetic complexity. Two newly numbered regions AR3510 (S15E26,
beta) and AR3511 (S23E26, beta) have both shown rapid spot growth
since appearing on the solar disk. An unnumbered region is visible
near S10E74 (alpha) and appears stable. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R0 level over 04-06 Dec, with a chance of R1. Several
CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. A southwest
directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery
from 03/0000UT. This CME is considered a farside event and not
geoeffective. A filament eruption was observed, visible in H-alpha
imagery near S22E70 at 03/0223UT. An associated CME visible in
LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery is not considered geoeffective.
An additional eruption was observed to the southeast in SDO imagery
at 03/1220UT but the associated narrow CME is not Earth-directed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 03-Dec increased, ranging from
390 to 535 km/s and is currently near 525 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north
south IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -6 nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to increase over 04-06 Dec due to a large equatorial
coronal hole now in the western hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A K
Australian Region 15 34323422
Cocos Island 11 33222421
Darwin 15 44223422
Townsville 19 44323522
Learmonth 20 44333522
Alice Springs 17 34323522
Gingin 13 33323422
Canberra 15 34323422
Hobart 12 33322323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Dec :
Macquarie Island 8 23311222
Casey 26 46433333
Mawson 16 34322334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 5410 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Dec 24 G1
05 Dec 18 G0-G1
06 Dec 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 75 was issued on 3 December
and is current for 4-5 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 03-Dec, with an isolated period
of G1 observed at Learmonth, Townsville and Alice Springs. Mostly
G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with an isolated period of G2 observed at Casey. G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 04-Dec due to the combined effects
of a possible glancing impact from a CME first observed on 01-Dec
and coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial
coronal hole. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 05-Dec.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 06-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 03-Dec were
normal. Normal to fair HF radio communication conditions are
expected over 04-05 Dec due to an expected increase in geomagnetic
activity. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 06-Dec.
Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Dec 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 98
Jan 95
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Dec 70 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Dec 75 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 124 was issued on 2
December and is current for 2-4 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced in
the Australian region on UT day 03-Dec. Spread F was observed
at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% depressed over 04-05 Dec due
to expected geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values on 06-Dec. Isolated minor shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 473 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 120000 K Bz: 10 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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