[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 December 23 issued 2331 UT on 02 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 3 10:31:03 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 148/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 158/112 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Dec was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3500 (S18W55,
gamma) is the most magnetically complex and largest region on
the solar disk and has decayed over the UT day. AR3494 (S17W80,
alpha) is stable and will soon rotate over the western limb.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 03-05 Dec. A
broad southwest directed CME was observed late on 01-Dec from
2236UT, visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery.
This CME is associated with the M1.0 flare from AR3500 at 01/2121UT.
Modelling indicates this CME is mostly missing the Earth, however
a glancing impact is possible late on 04-Dec. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed on UT day 02-Dec. The solar wind speed
on UT day 02-Dec decreased, ranging from 416 to 525 km/s and
is currently near 420 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 18 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +12 to -13 nT. A sustained period of southward
IMF conditions ended at 02/0240UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decline on 03-Dec, then increase over 04-05 Dec due to a large
equatorial coronal hole now in the western hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 42111212
Cocos Island 5 42100201
Darwin 7 42111212
Townsville 10 43111223
Learmonth 10 52122202
Alice Springs 7 42111212
Gingin 9 52111201
Canberra 7 42111212
Hobart 8 43112112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Dec :
Macquarie Island 8 43211111
Casey 22 45542222
Mawson 14 54321212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A
Fredericksburg
Planetary
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg
Planetary 4337 7564
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Dec 12 G0, chance G1
04 Dec 24 G1
05 Dec 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 02-Dec, with an isolated period of G1 observed
at Learmonth. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 03-Dec,
with a chance of G1 due to ongoing CME effects. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 04-05 Dec, due to the combined effects
of a possible glancing impact from a CME first observed on 01-Dec
and coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Poor Poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 01-Dec were
poor due to recent geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal HF conditions
are expected on 03-Dec. Normal to fair HF radio communication
conditions are expected over 04-05 Dec due to an expected increase
in geomagnetic activity. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Dec 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 98
Jan 95
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec 70 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Dec 75 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 124 was issued on 2
December and is current for 2-4 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were depressed by 20-45% in the Australian region on UT
day 02-Dec due to recent geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values on UT day 03-Dec. Depressions
of 15% are possible over 04-05 Dec due an expected increase in
geomagnetic activity. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 501 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 156000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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