[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 December 23 issued 2330 UT on 01 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 2 10:30:55 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0441UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 2121UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 162/116 158/112 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Dec was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.1 flare at 01/0441UT from AR3502 (N13W79, beta)
and an M1.0 at 01/2121UT from AR3500 (S18W41, beta-gamma). There
are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. AR3500 is the most magnetically complex region and has
shown decay in its intermediate spots. AR3502 is stable and will
soon rotate over the western limb. Newly numbered region AR3509
(N13W53, beta) recently appeared on the solar disk and has shown
rapid growth over the UT day. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 02-04 Dec. Several CMEs were observed, but none are
considered geoeffective. A southeast directed CME was observed,
visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 01/1436UT. This
CME is associated with a filament eruption near S30E55 visible
in SDO imagery from 01/1232UT. This CME is not considered geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 01-Dec increased due to the arrival
of the halo CME first observed on 28-Nov. A moderate shock in
the solar wind speed was observed at 01/0850UT. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 28 nT and the north
south IMF component (Bz) range was +27 to -27 nT. Several periods
of sustained southward IMF conditions were observed over the
UT day, with the most significant being from 01/0925-1235UT.
The solar wind is expected to remain elevated on 02-Dec before
declining on 03-Dec. A large coronal hole is now crossing the
central meridian and is expected to influence the solar wind
speed over 04-05 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: G2
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 41 43366553
Cocos Island 24 32254453
Darwin 32 42355553
Townsville 46 43366564
Learmonth 47 53366563
Alice Springs 37 43356553
Gingin 38 43366453
Canberra 42 33466554
Hobart 51 43467554
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Dec :
Macquarie Island 50 43565664
Casey 37 56543444
Mawson 57 55665465
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 12 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 60 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 39
Planetary 58
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 35 G1-G2
03 Dec 14 G0, chance G1
04 Dec 22 G0-G1
COMMENT: G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 01-Dec, with an isolated period of G3 observed
at Hobart. G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region. Geomagnetic storms occurred due to the arrival of a halo
CME first observed on 28-Nov. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 02-Dec due to ongoing CME effects. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 03-Dec, with a chance of G1. G0-G1
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 04-Dec due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 01-Dec were
fair to poor due to recent geomagnetic storming. Similarly fair
to poor HF radio communication conditions are expected on 02-Dec
and 04-Dec due to ongoing CME effects and expected coronal hole
influence on 04-Dec. Normal to fair conditions are expected on
03-Dec. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 98
Jan 95
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec 60 15 to 35% below predicted monthly values
03 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec 75 0 to 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 123 was issued on 1
December and is current for 2-3 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were initially near predicted monthly values in the Australian
region on UT day 01-Dec. MUF depressions of 35-50% have since
been observed after local dawn due to recent geomagnetic activity.
MUFs are expected to be 15-35% depressed on UT day 02-Dec due
to ongoing CME effects, before returning to near predicted monthly
values on 03-Dec. Depressions of 15% are possible on 04-Dec due
to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. Isolated minor
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 51100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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