[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 November 23 issued 2330 UT on 30 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 1 10:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 166/120 162/116 158/112
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Nov was R0. The largest
region currently on disk has AR3500(S18W26, gamma) has shown
continued slow decay and increased spot separation. Small solar
region AR3502(N13W65, beta) was in decay and has recently shown
redevelopment in its leader spot. Other regions mostly stable
and small, and some new small regions have been recently numbered.
There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk. Solar activity is expected to be mostly R0-R1, with the
slight chance for isolated R2 level flare activity. No new significantly
Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours. The solar
wind speed ranged between 451 and 326 km/s with a declining trend.
No CME transient signatures have been observed in the solar wind
data over the past 24 hours, with earlier partially Earth directed
CMEs appearing to have now missed the Earth. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -5 nT. The ACE EPAM low energy ion CME precursor
channel has only shown a slight increasing trend late in the
UT day on 30-Nov, perhaps suggesting a weaker or later arrival
of the M9.8 halo CME. This CME was initially expected to arrive
early in the UT day 01-Dec, and as it was an asymmetric halo
CME it is still expected to arrive. The solar wind parameters
are now expected to become moderately enhanced from mid to late
01-Dec and into 02-Dec. A large isolated coronal hole is visible
in the eastern solar hemisphere. The Earth is estimated to enter
this wind stream during 04-05 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 21101011
Cocos Island 2 21100010
Darwin 2 21101011
Townsville 3 21102011
Learmonth 3 21201011
Alice Springs 2 21101011
Gingin 3 21111011
Canberra 2 12111000
Hobart 4 22112011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 11222000
Casey 17 45432122
Mawson 9 34222120
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0221 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 45 G2, chance G3 second half of UT day
02 Dec 45 G2, chance G3 first half of UT day
03 Dec 16 G0, chance of G1 periods early in UT day.
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 74 was issued on 29 November
and is current for 30 Nov to 1 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 30-Nov. Mostly
G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with an isolated period of G1 at Casey. No CME arrivals were
observed in the past 24 hours. The forecast geomagnetic storm
level has been reduced for 01-Dec to G2, chance of G3 and the
anticipated storm activity is now expected to commence later
during the second half of 01-Dec and into the first half of
02-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
02 Dec Normal Fair Fair-poor
03 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 30-Nov were
normal. The anticipated CME arrivals have yet to eventuate. HF
radio communication conditions are now expected to be initially
normal on 01-Dec, becoming moderately degraded for middle to
high latitudes by the end of the UT day and followed by further
HF degradations on 02 Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
02 Dec 70 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
03 Dec 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 122 was
issued on 29 November and is current for 30 Nov to 1 Dec. Maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly values
to 20% enhanced in the Australian region on UT day 30-Nov. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced then becoming depressed 15 to 25% from late in the UT
day on 01-Dec and on 02-Dec. The anticipated geomagnetic storm
activity from recent CMEs has yet to eventuate but remains expected
at reduced strength. Any following ionospheric depression response
may now be restricted to the southern Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 87600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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