[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 December 23 issued 2342 UT on 14 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 15 10:42:48 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.8 0744UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.3 1348UT possible lower European
X2.8 1702UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Dec reached the R3 level
due to an X2.8 flare at 14/1702UT from solar region AR3514(N05W51,
beta-gamma). This region has continued to develop in area and
complexity particularly in its trailer spots. The other region
of note is AR3519(S10E26, beta) though much smaller, has shown
growth in its leader spots and decay in its trailer spots. All
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. A solar
prominence eruption was observed from 14/0600UT on the western
solar limb over the solar latitude range S10-S25. Solar activity
is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 15-17 Dec, with the chance
of a further isolated R3 event from AR3514. The GOES solar proton
flux is showing a very slight enhancement after 14/1900UT following
the flare activity. The earlier CME associated with the west
limb solar prominence eruption overlaps the M5 flare associated
CME. Initial assessment and model runs indicate a more west directed
CME, with a weak component arrival 17/2000UT +/- 12 hours. At
this stage the available LASCO imagery is up to 14/1536UT. For
the X2 flare/CME the STEREO-A coronagraph shows an asymmetric
partial halo CME from 14/1738UT. Event modelling shows only a component
arrival of a predominately west directed CME arriving 17/1100UT
+/- 12 hours. The solar longitude location of W50 for flaring
region AR3514 reduces any induced CME effects. The M2.3 flare
did not appear to have a significantly Earth directed CME, with
a possibly associated narrow north-northwest CME visible in C2
from 14/1400UT. The solar wind speed on UT day 14-Dec overall
slightly declined, ranging from 393 to 296 km/s and is currently
near 332 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 15 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was
+4 to -14 nT. A weak indistinct CME signature is evident in the
solar wind parameters after a data gap 13/2109-2221UT. The IMF
Bz became sustained mildly southward from 13/2224-14/1030UT,
with an increase in speed and density and total magnetic field
(Bt). The solar wind is expected to be mildly enhanced due to
a combination of weak coronal hole and CME influences 15-16 Dec,
and further enhanced on 17-Dec due to two component CME arrivals.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22232112
Cocos Island 5 22232001
Darwin 5 22222012
Townsville 7 22232112
Learmonth 7 22233002
Alice Springs 6 22232002
Gingin 12 33343112
Canberra 9 22342112
Hobart 10 22342212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Dec :
Macquarie Island 22 44553301
Casey 12 34333112
Mawson 24 45533333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 0121 1333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Dec 8 G0
16 Dec 16 G0, chance G1
17 Dec 35 G1, chance G2
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Dec. A weak enhancement was observed in geomagnetic
activity on 14-Dec. In the Antarctic region G0 conditions were
observed at Casey, G1 periods were observed at Macquarie Island
and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 14-15
Dec. A weak CME is expected to mildly increase geomagnetic activity
on 16-Dec. Preliminary modelling of CME activity on 14-Dec indicates
that G1 geomagnetic storm activity is possible on 17-Dec due
to component arrival of CMEs observed on 14-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Dec Normal Fair Poor
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 14-Dec were
mostly normal. Mostly normal HF communication conditions are
expected over 15-16 Dec. A mild degradation for middle to high
latitudes is possible on 16-Dec due to a weak CME, with further
degraded conditions expected on 17-18 Dec due to the anticipated
arrivals of CMEs observed on 14-Dec. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Dec 102
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
16 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
17 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 129 was issued on
14 December and is current for 14-16 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were near predicted monthly values in the Australian region
on UT day 14-Dec. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 15-16 Dec, with mildly degraded HF conditions possible
for the southern Australian region during local night hours on
16-Dec, due to an anticipated weak CME arrival. A further degradation
in ionospheric conditions is expected for the southern Australian
region during 17-18 Dec due to anticipated component arrivals
of CME activity observed on 14-Dec. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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