[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 29 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 30 09:30:08 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Aug 31 Aug 01 Sep
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Aug was R0. There are currently
five numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk, with a small
new unnumbered region rotating onto the disk in the north east
solar quadrant. Solar region AR3417(S05E57, beta) which has now
fully rotated onto the disk has been stable. Solar region AR3413(N09W31,
beta) showed both growth and decay in small surrounding spots,
but is in slow overall decay over recent days. Solar region AR3415(S09W16,
beta-gamma) also showed some minor redevelopment in small surrounding
spots, with its trailer spot slowly decaying. All other sunspot
regions are mostly stable. Solar activity is expected to be R0
with a chance for isolated R1 flares, as AR3417 has not shown
any significant development. No significantly Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 29-Aug
was steady, ranging from 310 to 375 km/s and is currently near
310 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+7 to -7 nT. The IMF Bz was mildly southward during the interval
29/0840-1230UT. Small coronal holes are visible west of the solar
central meridian at solar latitude N30, which may induce a mild
increase in solar wind speed in coming days. There is a slight
chance of a weak CME arrival on 30-Aug from a CME first observed
on 26-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11022101
Cocos Island 1 01111000
Darwin 4 22122101
Townsville 4 12022112
Learmonth 3 11122100
Alice Springs 2 11022100
Gingin 2 01012100
Canberra 2 01022101
Hobart 3 00022201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 00032100
Casey 5 22212210
Mawson 2 11012100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 4222 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Aug 10 G0
31 Aug 8 G0
01 Sep 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 29-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 30-Aug to 01-Sep. There is a chance for a weak
CME impact on 30-Aug, but no significant geomagnetic activity
is expected from this.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 29-Aug were
normal. Mostly normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected
over 30-Aug to 01-Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Aug 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Aug 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
31 Aug 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
01 Sep 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 83 was issued on
28 August and is current for 29-31 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 29-Aug in the Australian region were near predicted
values, with 20% enhancements after local dawn this morning.
Occasional mild spread F observed during local night hours at
Hobart and Canberra. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values
to 15% enhanced over 31-Aug to 01-Sep. Isolated fadeouts possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 18400 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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