[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 28 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 29 09:30:46 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Aug
Activity R0,chance R1-R2 R0,chance R1-R2 R0,chance R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 144/98 144/98 142/96
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Aug was R0. There are currently
five numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. Solar region
AR3417(S05E70, beta) has rotated further onto the solar disk,
with trailer spots now visible. Solar region AR3413(N09W17, beta)
has shown initial decay then redevelopment in its surrounding
small spots. All other sunspot regions are mostly stable. Some
minor solar filament motion was observed at N20E15 in GONG H-alpha
imagery. A small new region may soon rotate over the north east
limb at solar latitude N25. Solar activity is expected to be
R0 with a chance for isolated R1-R2 flares, primarily due to
possible development in AR3417. No significantly Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 28-Aug
declined, ranging from 304 to 430 km/s and is currently near
320 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -6 nT. Small coronal holes are visible at the solar central
meridian at solar latitude N30, which may induce a mild increase
in solar wind speed in coming days. There is a slight chance
of a weak CME arrival on 30-Aug from a CME first observed on
26-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 12211111
Cocos Island 4 12211120
Darwin 4 12211111
Townsville 4 12220112
Learmonth 4 12211210
Alice Springs 3 02210111
Gingin 5 12211221
Canberra 3 02220111
Hobart 3 02221110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Aug :
Macquarie Island 6 01332210
Casey 6 23311210
Mawson 16 44412332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 10 3331 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Aug 7 G0
30 Aug 10 G0
31 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 28-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 29-31 Aug. There is a chance for a weak CME
impact on 30-Aug, but no significant geomagnetic activity is
expected from this.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 28-Aug were
normal. Mostly normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected
over 29-31 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Aug 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-25%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Aug 115 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
30 Aug 115 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
31 Aug 115 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 83 was issued on
28 August and is current for 29-31 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 28-Aug in the Australian region were near predicted
values to 15% enhanced, with occasional mild spread F observed
during local night hours at Hobart, Canberra and Townsville.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced
over 29-31 Aug. Isolated fadeouts possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 47700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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