[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 27 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 28 09:30:47 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug: R0
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 26/2253UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 148/102 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Aug was R0, with enhanced
X-ray flux at the beginning of the day due to a long-duration
M1 (R1) flare at the end of 26-Aug UT day from an unknown source
around the eastern limb. There are currently five numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3413 (N09W06, beta), which is currently
the largest spot, has started showing decay. AR3515 (S09E09,
beta) has seen some growth and decay in its trailer spots but
has been stable otherwise. All other sunspot regions are stable.
Solar activity is expected to be R0 with a chance for R1. If
the region that produced the M1 flare on 26-Aug is to rotate
onto the visible disk then the flare forecast may be upgraded
to chance of R2, however at this stage no visual analysis of
the region can be done. A slow CME directed to solar northeast
was observed from 27/1624 UT, possibly associated with an unstable
filament near N20E80, but this CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
No other CMEs were observed on this UT day. The solar wind speed
on UT day 27 Aug was variable, with indicators that a small equatorial
coronal hole wind stream has become geoeffective. The solar wind
speed ranged from 326 to 478 km/s and is currently near 350 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -7
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to return to background
levels on 28-Aug, and see a minor increase on 30-Aug due to a
possible weak impact from a CME first observed on 26-Aug, however
confidence is low.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 22111221
Cocos Island 3 22111110
Darwin 5 22111221
Townsville 6 32112221
Learmonth 7 32112321
Alice Springs 4 22101221
Gingin 5 32101221
Canberra 4 22201220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Aug :
Macquarie Island 6 23311210
Casey 10 44111221
Mawson 29 65322254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 2232 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Aug 10 G0
29 Aug 8 G0
30 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 27-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctica region on UT day 27-Aug, with periods
of G2 and G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 28-30 Aug. There is a chance for a weak CME impact on 30-Aug,
but no significant geomagnetic activity is expected from this.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 27-Aug were
normal to mildly degraded, particularly in high latitudes. However,
due to technical issues analysis of conditions was limited. Mostly
normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected over 28-30
Aug, but some mild degradations may be observed in high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Aug 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Aug 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
29 Aug 115 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
30 Aug 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 27-Aug in
the Australian region were near predicted values to 15% enhanced,
however due to technical issues data is currently limited. Observations
were only available for Townsville, Perth, Learmonth and Canberra.
Some degradations were observed in Townsville during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced
over 28-30 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 90800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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