[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 26 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 27 09:30:06 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug: Low
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 2253UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Aug was R1, with an M1 solar
flare from an unnumbered region near S05 beyond the eastern solar
limb. A C1.9 solar flare was observed at 26/1300 UT from AR3405
(N11W84, alpha) and a C2 flare was observed at 26/1010 UT from
AR4313 (N09E09, beta). There are currently six numbered sunspot
regions on the disk. Due to limb foreshortening, AR3405 is difficult
to analyse, however it does not appear to hold a complex magnetic
configuration. AR3413 has had some growth in complexity over
the ast 24 hours. The delta spot in AR3415 (S09E24, beta) appears
to be weakening, and otherwise this region is stable. All other
sunspot regions are stable. Solar activity is expected to be
R0-R1 over 27-29 Aug. Associated with the C2 flare at 26/1010
UT was coronal dimming, possibly directed southwest and best
seen in SDO 211 imagery. Faint ejecta can be seen in coronagraph
difference imagery directed southwest, and may possibly be geoeffective.
This imagery is limited however, and confidence is low. Any impact
from this event is not expected to be significant. A CME was
associated with the C1.9 solar flare from AR3405 and was first
observed from 26/1325 UT. A second CME was associated with a
C1 flare from this region from 26/2010 UT. These CMEs are directed
to the west and are not expected to be geoeffective. A flare
at 26/2242 UT from a region beyond the eastern limb near S05
was associated with a CME that is not expected to be geoeffective.
No other CMEs were observed. The solar wind on UT day 26-Aug
was near background levels and ranged between 430 and 355 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -7
nT. The solar wind speed may increase over 27-28 Aug due to a
small coronal hole wind stream, and return to background levels
by 29-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 12211111
Cocos Island 3 12111111
Darwin 4 12211112
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 5 22211121
Alice Springs 3 12201111
Gingin 4 12201221
Canberra 4 12202211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Aug :
Macquarie Island 5 11222301
Casey 9 34321111
Mawson 17 24322335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 4 2100 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Aug 10 G0
28 Aug 10 G0
29 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 26-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 27-29 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 26-Aug were
normal to mildly degraded, however due to technical issues analysis
of conditions was limited. Mostly normal HF radio propagation
conditions are expected over 27-29 Aug, but some mild degradations
may be observed in mid to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Aug 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Aug 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
28 Aug 105 Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 26-Aug in
the Australian region were near predicted values to 15% enhanced,
however due to technical issues data is currently limited. Observations
were only available for Townsville, Perth, Learmonth and Canberra.
Some degradations were observed in Townsville during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced
over 27-29 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 51600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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