[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 25 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 26 09:30:50 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0109UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 138/92 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Aug was R1, with an M1.4
solar flare from AR3415 (S09E35, beta-delta). There are currently
six numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3413 (N09E20,
beta) has had some minor growth in its trailer spot, and AR3415
continues to be the most magnetically complex with a moderate
delta region, however the positive polarity has weakened. All
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be R0-R1 with a small chance for R2, primarily due to
AR3415. AR3405 (N11W73, alpha) produced some minor C-class flares
and some CME material was observed associated with these events,
although is not expected to be geoeffective. No other significant
CMEs were observed on UT day 25-Aug. The solar wind speed on
UT day 25-Aug was on a declining trend and ranged between 505
to 349 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component range was +3 to
-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase over 26-28
Aug due to a small equatorial coronal hole wind stream, combined
with a possible mild glancing impact on 27-Aug from a CME first
observed on 24-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11100101
Cocos Island 1 11110100
Darwin 2 12100101
Townsville 3 12101111
Learmonth 3 21110201
Alice Springs 2 12100101
Gingin 2 21100100
Canberra 1 11000101
Hobart 2 21001---
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 11001100
Casey 6 33220201
Mawson 12 33200244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1211 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Aug 8 G0
27 Aug 10 G0
28 Aug 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica region on UT day 25-Aug. G0 Geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 26-28 Aug. Conditions may be enhanced over
this period due to a small equatorial coronal hole wind stream
and possible CME glancing blow on 27-Aug, but it is not expected
to cause any significant activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal
27 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 25-Aug were
mostly normal, but due to technical issues analysis of conditions
during local night hours is restricted. Mostly normal HF radio
propagation conditions are expected on 26-Aug, but some mild
degradations may be observed in high latitudes over 27-28 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Aug 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 105% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Aug 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Aug 105 Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 82 was issued on
25 August and is current for 25-26 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 25-Aug were mostly near predicted monthly values
with 20 % enhanced in the Australian region. Scintillation was
observed at Niue Island from 25/0728-0859 UT. Due to technical
issues, analysis of MUFs for local night hours for the Australian,
Antarctic and Pacific region is restricted. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values to 20% enhanced on 26-Aug, and near
predicted values over 27-28 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 86700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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