[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 24 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 25 09:30:43 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Aug was at the R0 level,
with a long duration C3.1 flare at 24/2041UT and a C4.2 flare
at 24/2214UT. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. AR3413 (N09E34, beta) displayed spot
development over the UT day. AR3415 (S09E49, beta-delta) showed
decay in its trailer spots but appears to have a delta magnetic
configuration. AR3405 (N11W59, beta) was responsible for the
largest flare of the day and appears stable. All other numbered
sunspot regions are stable. Solar activity is expected to be
at the R0 level, with a chance of R1 over 25-27 Aug. No geoeffective
CMEs were observed on 24-Aug. An eruption on the western limb
at around N30 is visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 24/1944UT.
This eruption is associated with the C3.1 flare at 24/2041UT
and has produced a CME visible in SOHO imagery from 24/2000UT.
Preliminary modelling with limited imagery indicates this CME
will pass ahead of the Earth but further analysis will be performed
when more images become available. The C4.2 flare at 24/2214UT
from AR3405 may have also produced a CME which is not yet visible
in coronagraph imagery. Further analysis will be performed when
more images become available. The solar wind speed on UT day
24-Aug increased, ranging from 395 to 527 km/s and is currently
at around 480 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +8 to -7 nT. The increase in solar wind parameters on 24-Aug
suggests a weak glancing impact from a transient CME. The solar
wind speed is expected to gradually decline towards background
levels over 25-26 Aug. An increase is possible over 26-27 Aug
due to a small equatorial coronal hole rotating towards a geoeffective
position, combined with the chance of a mild glancing impact
on 27-Aug from a CME first observed on 24-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 11101322
Cocos Island 4 01111321
Darwin 5 12101321
Townsville 5 11102322
Learmonth 5 11002322
Alice Springs 4 11101321
Gingin 7 11101333
Canberra 3 11001222
Hobart 4 11001322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 00001211
Casey 8 23211322
Mawson 32 11101476
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2111 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Aug 8 G0
26 Aug 5 G0
27 Aug 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 24-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with G3 conditions observed
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 25-27
Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 24-Aug were
mostly normal. Mostly normal HF radio propagation conditions
are expected over 25-27 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Aug 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Aug 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Aug 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Aug 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies on UT day 24-Aug were near
predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced in the southern Australian
region and near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced in the
northern Australian region, with the strongest enhancements occurring
during local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 25-27 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 64200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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