[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 23 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 24 09:30:08 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug: R0
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 22/2304UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Aug was at the R0 level,
with C-class flaring only. There are currently eight numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3413 (N09E47, beta) displayed spot development over
the UT day. AR3415 (S09E62, beta) appeared stable but displays
the possibility of developing a delta spot. All other numbered
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered
region is visible at N12E52 with beta magnetic characteristics.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level with a chance
of R1 over 24-26 Aug. No significantly geoeffective CMEs were
observed on 23-Aug. An eruption is visible in SDO, GOES SUVI
and H-Alpha imagery at around S30W50 from 23/0152UT. An associated,
slow, CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 23/0217UT.
Modelling indicates the vast majority of this CME will pass ahead
of the Earth but there is a chance of a faint glancing impact
on 27-Aug. Any geomagnetic effects from this impact are expected
to be negligible. A west directed CME is visible in SOHO imagery
from 23/1425UT, there is no on-disk eruption associated with
this CME and it is considered to be a far side event and not
geoeffective. An eruption is visible in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha
imagery from 23/1604UT at around N05E45 associated with a long
duration C-class flare. A filament lift off is visible in GOES
SUVI, SDO and H-Alpha imagery from 23/1916UT at around S35W50.
No associated CMEs are visible for either of these eruptions
in currently available imagery. Further analysis will be performed
should any CMEs eventuate. The solar wind speed on UT day 23-Aug
was stable, ranging between 397 and 469 km/s. The solar wind
speed is currently at around 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -2 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain steady over 24-25 Aug. An increase is possible on 26-Aug
due to high speed wind streame effects from a small equatorial
coronal hole currently crossing the solar meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11000002
Cocos Island 1 11000001
Darwin 2 12100002
Townsville 2 11100012
Learmonth 2 11100002
Alice Springs 1 01000002
Gingin 1 10000002
Canberra 0 01000001
Hobart 0 01000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 33200112
Mawson 9 32000025
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 8 1100 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Aug 5 G0
25 Aug 5 G0
26 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 23-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 24-26
Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 23-Aug were
mostly normal. Mostly normal HF radio conditions are expected
over 24-26 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Aug 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Aug 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Aug 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Aug 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 81 was issued on
22 August and is current for 23-24 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
on UT day 23-Aug were near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced
in the southern Australian region and near predicted monthly
values in the northern Australian region. Spread-F was observed
at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 24-26 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 467 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 182000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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