[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 22 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 23 09:30:43 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 2304UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Aug was R1, with an M1 solar
flare at 23/2305 UT from AR3405 (N11W32, beta). Additionally,
a C5 flare was observed that peaked at 22/0000 UT from AR4313
(N09E62, alpha), however a new unnumbered region on the eastern
limb near S10 appeared to also flare at this time. There are
currently eight numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. All
numbered regions hold a simple magnetic configuration and have
been stable over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected
to be R0 with a slight chance for R1 over 23-25 Aug, predominantly
due to the new region near S10E80. Several CMEs were observed
on 22-Aug, but none are considered geoeffective. A small filament
eruption that was observed on 21-Aug from 1628 UT may have been
associated with a southwest directed CME, but imagery is still
limited. A weak glancing blow may be possible by 25-Aug, although
any impact is not expected to be significant. The solar wind
speed on UT day 22-Aug was on a declining trend and ranged from
548 to 420 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +3 to -3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near
current speeds over 23-25 Aug, with speed enhancements being
possibly attributed to a small coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22212001
Cocos Island 3 22210000
Darwin 3 22211001
Townsville 5 22212012
Learmonth 3 22212000
Alice Springs 3 12211001
Gingin 3 22212000
Canberra 3 22212000
Hobart 3 22212000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 12212000
Casey 8 33321112
Mawson 16 45321114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3132 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Aug 8 G0
24 Aug 6 G0
25 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 22-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctica region, with an isolated periods of
G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 23-25
Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Fair-poor Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Fair Normal Normal-fair
24 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
25 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 22-Aug were
normal in mid latitude regions, although degraded during local
night hours in low and high latitudes. Mostly normal HF radio
conditions are expected over 23-25 Aug, with a chance for degradations
to persist in low latitudes. There is a slight chance for
shortwave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Aug 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 60% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Aug 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
24 Aug 125 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
25 Aug 125 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 81 was issued on
22 August and is current for 23-24 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
on UT day 22-Aug were near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced
in the Australian region. Sporadic-E was observed in Brisbane,
Townsville and Hobart during local night hours. Spread-F was
observed in Townsville, Learmonth and Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 23-25 Aug with enhancements up to 25%. There is a slight
chance for shortwave fadeouts.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 590 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 257000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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