[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 21 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 22 09:30:44 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Aug was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk, however they are all either stable or in decay.
A new region is developing near S15W32 but does not appear complex
at this stage. Solar activity is expected to be R0, with a slight
chance for R1 over 22-24 Aug. No significant CMEs were observed
on 21-Aug, although coronagraph imagery is currently limited.
A small filament erupted in the southwest solar quadrant from
21/1555 UT, but no associated CME is visible. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) on UT day 21-Aug was
7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5
nT. The solar wind speed was on a general declining trend and
ranged between 673 to 515 km/s. The solar wind speed is expected
to mostly continue its decline over 22-24 Aug, although is still
likely to be moderate on 22-Aug. There is a chance a small coronal
hole may contribute to increased solar wind speeds over 22-24
Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 22323111
Cocos Island 5 22222120
Darwin 5 22222111
Townsville 7 21323112
Learmonth 8 22323121
Alice Springs 7 21323111
Gingin 7 22323021
Canberra 6 12323011
Hobart 7 22323011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Aug :
Macquarie Island 11 11335011
Casey 10 33332122
Mawson 22 54432144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 77 (Active)
Canberra 66 (Active)
Hobart 60 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 11 3103 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Aug 10 G0
23 Aug 8 G0
24 Aug 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 Geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 21-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctica region, with some isolated periods
of G1 at Macquarie Island and at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 22-24 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Fair-poor Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 21-Aug were
mostly normal in middle and high latitudes. Degraded conditions
were observed in low latitude regions, particularly during local
night hours. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 22-24
Aug, with a chance for degradations to persist in low latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Aug 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Aug 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Aug 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Aug 120 Near to 1% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 21-Aug were
mostly near predicted values to 15% enhanced in the Australian
region. Spread was observed in Brisbane and Townsville during
local night hours. Sporadic-E was observed in Brisbane, Learmonth,
Perth and Townsville during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to remain near predicted values to 15% enhanced over 22-24 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 588 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 246000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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