[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 20 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 21 09:30:45 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 153/108 153/108 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Aug was R0. There are currently
7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. All regions currently
on the solar disk are considered minor and are either stable
or in decay. Decaying solar region AR3409(N18W69, beta) produced
the largest flare for the day, a minor C3.7 at 20/0626UT. Minor
limb emission was observed during the interval 20/1800-2000UT
on the north east limb (N08) and south east limb (S06) associated
with low C class flares. No significantly Earth directed CMEs
have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 20-Aug increased
after 20/0500UT and ranged between 480 and 690km/s, and is currently
at 648km/sec. The solar origin of this enhancement is unclear,
perhaps associated with recent weak westward CME activity just
grazing the Earth's magnetosphere. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +9 nT to -6 nT. The IMF Bz was orientated mostly
northward during the UT day. The solar wind is expected to be
moderately elevated for today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22121012
Cocos Island 2 11121010
Darwin 5 22122112
Townsville 6 22222112
Learmonth 6 22122122
Alice Springs 4 22121011
Gingin 5 22121022
Canberra 3 11121012
Hobart 4 22021012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 12030011
Casey 11 34331122
Mawson 21 55322234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 2211 1433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Aug 10 G0
22 Aug 10 G0
23 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctica region, with periods of G1 at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 21-23 Aug. There
is a slight chance of a mild increase in geomagnetic activity
22-23 Aug due to a recent minor CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 20-Aug were
mostly normal, with some mild degradations at middle to high
latitudes during local night hours. Normal conditions are generally
expected 21-23 Aug, with further mild degradations at middle
to high latitudes during local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Aug 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-30%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Aug 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Aug 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Aug 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 20-Aug were
near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced in the Australian
region. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours
and at Darwin during the predawn period. MUFs are expected to
remain near predicted values to 15% enhanced over 21-23 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 471 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 166000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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