[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 19 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 20 09:30:45 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 153/108 153/108
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Aug was R0. There are currently
9 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. All regions currently
on the solar disk are minor and magnetically simple. The two
solar regions recently of interest AR3403(N26W46, beta) and nearby
AR3409(N18W55, beta) are in decline. Small solar region AR3407(S17W28,
beta) has shown small intermediate spot development, whilst its
leader spot may be starting to decay. Some of these small intermediate
spots are close and of opposite polarity, though the magnetic
fields are quite weak. Solar region AR3406(S16W69, beta) which
is about to rotate off disk is showing growth. All other regions
are stable or in decline. No significantly Earth directed CMEs
have been observed. Yesterdays minor filament activity in the
north west solar quadrant produced a narrow north west directed
CME which subsequent modelling shows may graze the Earth's magnetosphere
from late 22-Aug to early 23-Aug. A south east directed CME observed
in LASCO C2 from 19/0912UT is associated with a solar south east
limb prominence eruption visible in GOES SUVI from 19/0716UT
and is not Earth directed. Solar flare activity is expected to
be R0. Old region AR3386 which produced M-flare(s) in its previous
disk transit may return to the north east limb (N11) on 20-Aug.
Old region AR3380 has failed to return as anything significant.
The background X-ray flux and solar radio 10.7cm flux are currently
slowly declining. The solar wind speed on UT day 19-Aug was steady,
with a slight declining trend for the first half of the UT day,
and ranged between 430 and 523km/s, and is currently at 490km/sec.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 nT to
-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 11111132
Cocos Island 3 12110121
Darwin 4 12111122
Townsville 6 12122132
Learmonth 5 21111132
Alice Springs 4 11111122
Gingin 5 21112032
Canberra 5 11122032
Hobart 5 11122032
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 01022021
Casey 6 22121132
Mawson 22 33221165
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 12 2333 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Aug 8 G0
21 Aug 6 G0
22 Aug 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 19-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctica region, with periods of G1 and G2
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 20-22
Aug. There is a slight chance of a mild increase in geomagnetic
activity 22-23 Aug due to a recent minor CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 19-Aug were
mostly normal, with some mild degradations at middle to high
latitudes during local night hours. Normal conditions are generally
expected 20-22 Aug, with further mild degradations at middle
to high latitudes during local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Aug 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Aug 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Aug 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Aug 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 19-Aug were
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced in the Australian
region. Spread F was observed at Hobart and Canberra during local
night hours. Ionospheric phase scintillation was briefly observed
at Weipa 19/1230UT. MUFs are expected to remain near predicted
values to 15% enhanced over 20-22 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 468 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 240000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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