[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 30 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 31 09:30:44 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Aug 01 Sep 02 Sep
Activity R0, chance R1-R2 R0, chance R1-R2 R0, chance R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Aug was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently six numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3413 (N09W46, beta-gamma) has shown growth
in magnetic complexity. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity over 31-Aug to 02-Sep is expected
to be R0 with a chance for R1, most likely from region AR3413
or possibly AR3417 (S05E47, beta). A northeast directed CME was
observed from 29/2000 UT that can be attributed to a prominence
lift-off, however is not expected to be geoeffective. An unstable
filament was observed near AR3413 from 30/1527 UT that was associated
with coronal dimming and a C2 flare at 1642 UT. Coronagraph imagery
is currently limited, and analysis of this event remains difficult.
Any Earth-directed component is not expected to be significant.
A filament was observed lifting off the disk from 30/2019 UT.
A weak halo signature can be seen from 30/2236 UT, but analysis
is ongoing to determine the source and if there is any geoeffective
component. The solar wind speed on UT day 30-Aug was steady and
ranged between 298 to 4123 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels over 31-Aug to 02-Sep, although
there is a chance for slight enhancements to be observed due
to a possible weak impact from a CME first observed on 26-Aug,
although this is low confidence as the window for impact may
have already passed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11112010
Cocos Island 2 11112010
Darwin 3 21112001
Townsville 3 12112011
Learmonth 4 21213100
Alice Springs 2 11102000
Gingin 3 20103010
Canberra 1 10102000
Hobart 2 11102110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 01013100
Casey 8 33322110
Mawson 11 52213211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 1112 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Aug 8 G0
01 Sep 6 G0
02 Sep 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 30-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctica region, with an isolated period of
G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 31-Aug
to 02-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 30-Aug were
generally good, with some minor degradations at middle latitudes.
Mostly normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected over
31-Aug to 02-Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Aug 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Aug 105 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
01 Sep 105 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
02 Sep 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 83 was issued on
28 August and is current for 29-31 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 30-Aug were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Range spread was observed in Hobart during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced
over 31-Aug to 02-Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 37300 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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