[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 16 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 17 09:30:42 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 160/114
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Aug was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions
on the disk. Many of these are new regions which have displayed
rapid growth over the past day, being AR3403 (N26W08, beta),
AR3405 (N11E49, beta-gamma), AR3407 (S17E11, beta) and AR3409
(N18W16, beta). At the time of wiring, AR3405 and AR3404 hold
the most magnetic complexity, although have not produced any
significant activity. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 with a chance
for R2 over 17-19 Aug. No CMEs were observed on 16-Aug. The solar
wind speed on UT day 16-Aug was on a mildly inclining trend and
ranged between 269 to 332 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was -8 to +5 nT. A minor shock to the solar wind parameters
was observed at 16/1245 UT and Bz was oriented southward between
16/1250 - 1900 UT. A small coronal hole wind stream is the possible
cause for the change in solar wind parameters. The solar wind
speed is expected to be moderate on 17-Aug and possibly return
to background levels over 18-19 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 12112221
Cocos Island 3 11111210
Darwin 4 12102212
Townsville 5 12112212
Learmonth 6 12212321
Alice Springs 5 02202222
Gingin 5 12101321
Canberra 4 12101221
Hobart 4 02111221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 00010310
Casey 6 13311220
Mawson 19 42202641
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 4 1101 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Aug 10 G0
18 Aug 8 G0
19 Aug 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 16-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctica region, with an isolated period of
G2 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 17-19
Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
18 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 16-Aug were
mostly normal, with some degradations at low latitudes during
local night hours. Mild degradations may continue in low latitudes
over 17-19, with the possibility of some isolated scintillation.
Middle and high latitudes are expected to be mostly normal over
17-19 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Aug 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Aug 115 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
18 Aug 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Aug 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 16-Aug were
near predicted values to 20% enhanced in the Australian region.
Strong spread-F and degraded conditions were observed in Townsville,
Learmonth and Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values to 20% enhanced over 17-19 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 304 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 25000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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