[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 17 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 18 09:30:46 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 157/111
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Aug was R0. There are currently
8 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3403 (N26W21,
beta) and AR3409 (N18W29, alpha) have both shown growth over
the past 24 hours. All other sunspot regions are stable or in
decay. Despite numerous visible sunspots, most regions are relatively
magnetically simple. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 with
a chance for R2 over 18-20 Aug. A prominence eruption was observed
on the southwestern limb from 17/0229 UT associated with a long-duration
C-class flare. A CME was observed from this region from 17/0324
UT but has analysed not to be geoeffective. A long duration C-class
flare was observed from AR3397 (N18W82, beta) from 17/1240 UT
and an associated CME was observed from 17/1248 UT, but is not
expected to be geoeffective. No other significant CMEs were observed
today. The solar wind speed on UT day 17-Aug was on a steadily
increasing, although nominal, trend and ranged between 300 and
335 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+10 nT to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at
background levels over 18-20 Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22101211
Cocos Island 3 22110210
Darwin 4 22201211
Townsville 5 22201212
Learmonth 4 22101211
Alice Springs 3 12100211
Gingin 3 12201110
Canberra 3 22101111
Hobart 2 12101110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 11201000
Casey 6 33211101
Mawson 12 53311221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 1112 3532
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Aug 8 G0
19 Aug 6 G0
20 Aug 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 17-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctica region, with an isolated period of
G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 18-20
Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 17-Aug were
mostly normal, with some mild degradations at most latitudes
during local night hours. Further mild degradations are possible
at high latitudes over 18-20 Aug, otherwise normal conditions
are expected.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Aug 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Aug 125 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
19 Aug 125 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
20 Aug 125 Near to 20% predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 80 was issued on
17 August and is current for 17-19 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 17-Aug were near predicted monthly values to
25% enhanced in the Australian region. Spread was observed in
Brisbane during local night hours. MUFs are expected to remain
near predicted values to 20% enhanced over 18-20 Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 306 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 25600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list