[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 15 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 16 09:30:09 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Aug was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. Trailer spots of solar region AR3405(N11E65,beta)
have rotated onto the solar disk. This region currently has a
more open spot configuration. Solar region AR3403(N26E08, beta)
continues to slowly develop. These two regions are currently
the largest on the solar disk. AR3403 has slightly increased
in magnetic complexity with a single small spot of opposite polarity
on the inside edge of its leader spots. Two new small regions
AR3407(S17E27, beta) and AR3406(S16W14, beta) have recently emerged
and are currently growing, with AR3407 currently growing rapidly.
Small spots are also emerging between these two new solar regions.
Minor solar region AR3402(S24W81) has decayed, and AR3394(S24)
has rotated off disk. Another minor solar region AR3395(N12W78,
beta) is decaying as it departs the solar disk. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be R0 with a chance for R1 over 16-18 Aug, primarily due to
regions AR3403, AR3405 and AR3407. Event modelling of yesterday's
C8.9 flare and north east directed CME from AR3405 shows an Earth
miss. No new significantly Earth directed CMEs have been observed.
A westward CME was observed from 15/1000UT and a south west directed
CME was observed from 15/1348UT in LASCO C2. Due to a lack of
on disk activity these CMEs are considered as far side events.
A possible on disk source candidate is some minor filament activity
at S15W55 (GONG H-alpha imagery), however whilst the filament
has changed shape it doesn't appear to have lifted off. Western
limb corona motion is evident in GOES SUVI imagery during 15/0800-0900UT
to the west, and during 15/1300-1400UT to the south west, also
implying these CMEs are near/behind western limb events. The
solar wind speed exhibited a slight declining trend on 15-Aug
and ranged from 340 to 289 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +3to -5 nT. A mild southward interval in Bz was
observed from 15/1500-2100UT. A mild to moderate increase in
solar wind speed may occur on 16-Aug due to a coronal hole high
speed wind stream from a small coronal hole located in the northwest
solar quadrant.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 2 11100002
Townsville 2 12100012
Learmonth 1 10100001
Alice Springs 1 01100001
Gingin 0 10000001
Canberra 0 01000001
Hobart 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 2 12200101
Mawson 6 22100124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1100 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Aug 13 G0
17 Aug 10 G0
18 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region on UT day 15-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 16-18 Aug. A mild increase in geomagnetic activity
may be experienced on 16-Aug due to a minor coronal hole wind
stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on UT day 15-Aug were mostly
normal. Isolated equatorial ionospheric scintillation was observed
on 15-Aug. HF propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
normal over 16-18 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Aug 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40-60%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Aug 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Aug 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Aug 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 15-Aug were
near predicted values to 25% enhanced in the Australian region.
Strong enhancements were observed at Cocos Island. Weak ionospheric
phase scintillation (<1 deg.) was observed 15/1000UT at Niue.
Mild spread-F was observed at Hobart during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 16-18 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 51400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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