[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 August 23 issued 2333 UT on 14 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 15 09:33:45 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Aug was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently six numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. A C8.9 flare was observed at 14/2110UT from
AR3405(N09E76, alpha), which has recently rotated onto the solar
disk. Solar region AR3403(N26E21, beta) continues to slowly develop.
A new small unnumbered region has emerged on disk at S24E41.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be R0 with a chance for R1 over 15-17
Aug. Yesterday's slow south east directed CME observed from 13/2313UT
has been associated with a small erupting filament located at
S22E42 and event modelling shows an Earth miss. West directed
CMEs were observed from 13/1612UT, 13/1924UT and 14/0148UT. One
of these CMEs could possibly be related to a possible partial
filament eruption at S15W65 (GONG H-alpha) late on 13-Aug, though
variable seeing conditions makes on disk confirmation difficult.
Assuming front side activity the far western solar longitude
of this activity greatly reduces any possible geo-effectiveness.
Event modelling will be conducted to confirm. A CME was observed
off the north east limb at 14/2200UT in LASCO C2 possibly associated
with the C8.9 flare from AR3405 and is considered unlikely to
be geoeffective. The solar wind speed exhibited a slight declining
trend on 14-Aug and ranged from 376 to 323 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -4 nT. A moderate increase
in solar wind speed may occur from late 15-16 Aug due to a coronal
hole high speed wind stream from a small coronal hole located
in the northwest solar quadrant.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11101011
Cocos Island 1 11110010
Darwin 3 22101012
Townsville 3 21101012
Learmonth 1 11001010
Alice Springs 2 12100011
Gingin 2 11101021
Canberra 1 01001010
Hobart 1 11001010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 01002000
Casey 5 23201021
Mawson 14 42100154
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2201 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Aug 10 G0
16 Aug 13 G0
17 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 15-17
Aug. A mild increase in geomagnetic activity may be experienced
from late 15 to 16-Aug due to a minor coronal hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on UT day 14-Aug were mostly
normal. Equatorial ionospheric scintillation was observed at
times on 14-Aug. HF propagation conditions are expected to be
mostly normal over 15-17 Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Aug 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Aug 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Aug 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Aug 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 14-Aug were
near predicted values to 15% enhanced in the Australian region.
Strong enhancements were observed at Niue during local night
hours. Ionospheric amplitude scintillation was observed 14/0759-1012UT
at Niue. Depressions of 20% were observed at Cocos Island during
local night hours. Mild spread-F was observed at Hobart during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 15-17 Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 68000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list