[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 13 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 14 09:30:46 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Aug was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently four numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk, plus five unclassified sunspots. AR3397 (N17W26,
beta) and AR3403 (N26E35) have shown some growth over the past
24 hours. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be R0 with a chance for R1 over
14-16 Aug. The 10 MeV proton flux has returned to background
levels and is expected to remain at background levels over 14-16
Aug. A CME was observed from the western solar limb from 13/1600
UT but is not expected to be geoeffective. Preliminary images
for a southward partial halo CME were observed from 13/2313 UT.
Analysis is ongoing to determine the source of the CME and any
possible Earth-directed component. The solar wind speed was on
a general declining trend on 13-Aug and ranged from 440 to 329
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4
to -3 nT. An increase to the solar wind speed may be expected
over 14-15 Aug due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 12111001
Cocos Island 2 12110000
Darwin 2 11110002
Townsville 3 12111012
Learmonth 2 22101000
Alice Springs 1 11110001
Gingin 2 21101010
Canberra 1 11000001
Hobart 2 12101001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 8 34311011
Mawson 12 53130003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 2321 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Aug 16 G0
15 Aug 16 G0
16 Aug 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and region on UT day 13-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctica region, with an isolated period
of G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
14-16 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
15 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on UT day 13-Aug were mostly
normal. Some degradations were observed in low latitudes during
local dawn hours. HF propagation conditions are expected to be
mostly normal over 14-16.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Aug 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Aug 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
15 Aug 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Aug 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 13-Aug were
near predicted values to 20% enhanced in the Australian region.
Degraded conditions were observed at Townsville and Niue Island
from approximately 13/1800 UT onwards. Spread-F was observed
at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced over 14-16 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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