[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 12 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 13 09:30:07 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Aug was at the R0 level,
with several high C-class flares. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3394 (S24W53, beta)
is the largest sunspot group but has reduced in magnetic complexity
and decreased in size. AR3395 (N12W40, gamma-delta) remains magnetically
complex but has displayed spot decay. AR3397 (N17W14, beta) and
AR3400 (S16W15, beta) developed over the UT day but remain magnetically
simple. None of these active regions have produced a flare at
or above the R1 level, with AR3395 and AR3397 responsible for
the largest C-class flares of the UT day. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 13-15 Aug. The >10 MeV proton flux was
enhanced over 12-Aug but was below the S1 threshold. The flux
is expected to remain enhanced over 13-Aug with the slight chance
of an S1 event if significant flare activity occurs near the
west limb. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 12-Aug. The
solar wind speed on 12-Aug declined gradually, ranging from 392
to 486 km/s and is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue to gradually decline towards background levels over
13-Aug. An increase is expected on 14-Aug due to high speed wind
stream effects from a northern hemisphere coronal hole, rotating
towards a geoeffective position. Elevated solar wind speeds are
expected to persist over 15-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22211111
Cocos Island 2 12110010
Darwin 4 22211011
Townsville 6 23211112
Learmonth 5 22211121
Alice Springs 5 13211111
Gingin 4 22201121
Canberra 4 12211111
Hobart 3 12201111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 11201110
Casey 14 44332222
Mawson 20 43322126
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2111 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Aug 5 G0
14 Aug 12 G0, chance of G1
15 Aug 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 12-Aug. G0 conditions were mostly observed in
the Antarctic region on 12-Aug, with an isolated period of G2
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 13-Aug.
G0 conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected on 14-15 Aug
due to high speed wind stream effects from a coronal hole rotating
towards a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on UT day 12-Aug were mostly
normal. HF propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 13-15 Aug. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Aug 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 85% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Aug 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Aug 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Aug 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 79 was issued on
11 August and is current for 11-13 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 12-Aug were near predicted monthly values to
25% enhanced in the southern Australian region during local night
an up to 15% percent enhanced during local day. MUFs were near
predicted monthly values in the northern Australian region. Spread-F
was observed in Hobart, Darwin and Niue, with a small amount
observed at Canberra during local night hours. Mild depressions
were observed in Darwin mostly during periods in which spread-F
was observed. Significant sporadic E was observed at Cocos Island
between 12/2000UT - 12/2300UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 13-15 Aug, particularly in
the southern Australian region. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 168000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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