[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 August 23 issued 2333 UT on 10 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 11 09:33:28 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Aug was at the R0 level,
with several high C-class flares, mostly on the western limb.
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk and two unnumbered regions. AR3394 (S20W32, gamma)
and AR3395 (N15W18, gamma-delta) are the largest and most significant
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3394 appears stable, whilst
AR3395 showed significant development on 10-Aug. An unnumbered
region has emerged on the solar disk at S18E12 with beta magnetic
characteristics and another unnumbered region has emerged at
S23E34 with alpha magnetic characteristics. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels, with a chance of R2 over 11-13 Aug. The
S1 event which began on 8-Aug ended on 10-Aug at 0915UT. The
>10 MeV proton flux remains enhanced but below the S1 threshold.
There is a chance of further S1 events over 11-13 Aug due to
the chance of R1 and higher flare activity in the western hemisphere.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 10-Aug. A fast, southwest
directed CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 10/0248UT.
An eruption is visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery on the western
limb from 10/0239UT at around S20. Modelling indicates this CME
has no geoeffective component and will pass ahead of the Earth.
A slow filament lift off is visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery
off the southern limb from 10/0439UT. An associated CME is visible
in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 10/0548UT. Modelling indicates
that this CME is directed too far to the south to contain a geoeffective
component. A faint, east directed CME is visible in SOHO and
STEREO-A imagery from 10/0724UT. No on disk activity is associated
with this CME and it is not considered geoeffective. An eruption
is visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 10/1858UT at around
N08W40. No associated CME is visible in currently available imagery.
The solar wind speed on 10-Aug increased, ranging from 353 to
515 km/s and is currently near 490 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -5 nT. A small impulse in the IMF was observed
at 10/1602UT, indicative of a glancing impact from a CME first
observed on 7-Aug. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
elevated over 11-Aug, with a decrease expected over 12-13 Aug.
There is a chance of another increase late on 13-Aug, due to
high speed wind stream effects from a coronal hole rotating towards
a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 12111311
Cocos Island 5 12111311
Darwin 6 12211312
Townsville 6 22111312
Learmonth 5 12211311
Alice Springs 4 11111311
Gingin 5 11211321
Canberra 5 11121311
Hobart 5 11121311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Aug :
Macquarie Island 7 11131411
Casey 8 22322222
Mawson 17 44323324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 2122 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Aug 5 G0
12 Aug 5 G0
13 Aug 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 10-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 11-13 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0105UT 08/08, Ended at 0915UT 10/08
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 10-Aug were
generally normal to fair, with degraded conditions at high latitudes
in the first half of the UT day, due to polar cap absorption
(PCA) caused by an S1 event. HF propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 11-13 Aug, with poor conditions possible
at high latitudes should further S1 conditions occur. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Aug 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Aug 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Aug 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Aug 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 78 was issued on
8 August and is current for 9-11 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 10-Aug were near predicted monthly values to
20% enhanced in the southern Australian region and near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced in the northern Australian region.
With most enhancements occurring during local night hours. Spread-F
was observed in Hobart, Canberra and Brisbane during local night
hours. Scintillation was observed at Weipa between 10/1050UT
- 10/1259UT. Polar cap absorption (PCA), due to an S1 solar radiation
event, caused degraded conditions in Antarctica at the start
of the day. Further PCA is possible over 11-13 Aug if S1 conditions
return. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 11-13 Aug. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 51900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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