[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 09 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 10 09:30:45 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug
Activity R0-R1, chance of R2R0-R1, chance of R2R0-R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 9-Aug was at the R0 level.
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk and two unnumbered regions. AR3394 (S20W17, beta-gamma)
is the largest sunspot group and displayed development in its
trailer spots over the UT day. AR3395 (N15W03, beta-gamma-delta)
also displayed trailer spot development. AR3394 and AR3395 together
are the most significant sunspot groups visible on the disk,
however neither have produced an M-class flare so far. An unnumbered
region has appeared on the solar disk at around S03W52 and another
has appeared at around S30E60, both have beta magnetic complexity
and appear stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels,
with a chance of R2 over 10-12 Aug. An S1 proton storm event
began at 8/0105UT and is ongoing. The proton flux is declining
towards the S1 threshold and the S1 event is expected to end
on 10-Aug. No geoeffective CMEs were observed. A southwest directed
partial halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery
from 9/1612UT. There is no visible on disk source or type II
radio sweep associated with this event and it is considered to
be farside and non geoeffective. The solar wind speed on 9-Aug
declined. ranging between 480 to 361 km/s and is currently near
390 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+6 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to
decline to background levels and remain there over 10-12 Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 11113122
Cocos Island 4 11212211
Darwin 5 12212122
Townsville 7 22113113
Learmonth 7 21223122
Alice Springs 5 21122122
Gingin 6 11123222
Canberra 4 11112112
Hobart 5 11113212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Aug :
Macquarie Island 5 10124110
Casey 9 33322122
Mawson 23 43333326
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 5002 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Aug 10 G0
11 Aug 5 G0
12 Aug 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 9-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 10-12 Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 08 08 2023 0105UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 9-Aug were
generally normal to fair, with degraded conditions at high latitudes
due to polar cap absorption caused by an ongoing S1 event. HF
propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal at low
to mid latitudes on 10-Aug, with poor conditions expected at
high latitudes due the ongoing S1 event. Mostly normal propagation
conditions are expected over 11-12 Aug. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Aug 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Aug 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Aug 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Aug 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 78 was issued on
8 August and is current for 9-11 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 9-Aug were near predicted values in the Australian
region. Spread-F was observed at Hobart, Canberra and Townsville.
Scintillation was observed at Niue between 9/0929 - 0950 UT.
Due to S1 solar radiation storm conditions, degraded conditions
have been observed at high latitudes are expected to end during
10-Aug. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values over 10-12
Aug with enhancements of 15% possible. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 485 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 227000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list