[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 08 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 9 09:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.6 0931UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Aug was R1, with an M3 solar
flare from AR3387 (N24W86, beta). A C8 solar flare was also observed
from AR3394 (S20W03, beta). There are currently eight numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3386, which previously produced
numerous M and X-class flares, is almost completely obscured
behind the western limb and any further flares are not likely
to be visible. AR3394 and AR3395 (N15E11, beta) have both shown
growth in their trailer spots. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0-R1, with a chance for R2. The 10 MeV proton flux remains enhanced
and is currently at S1, near 30 pfu. Recent long-duration solar
flares from numerous regions over the past few days have contributed
to the enhanced flux. S1 solar radiation storm conditions are
expected to continue over 09-Aug, possibly declining to background
levels by 10-Aug. Long duration flares from AR3387 and A3394
may cause it to remain enhanced, however. A large CME was observed
from 08/0924 UT from the southeast limb, likely associated with
a prominence eruption. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
No other significant CMEs were observed. Two CME from 05-Aug
that were expected to arrive on 08-Aug failed to do so, and no
increase to the solar wind parameters was observed from these
events. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
on 08-Aug was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +4 to -6 nT. There is a faint but large coronal hole feature
centered near N00W10, which may be contributing to mildly enhanced
solar wind speeds. The solar wind speed on 08-Aug ranged between
450 to 500 km/s and is currently near 450 km/s. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain near 450 km/s, possibly declining
to background levels by 11-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Cocos Island 2 21010010
Darwin 2 21101011
Townsville 5 32111112
Learmonth 4 31111110
Alice Springs 2 21101101
Gingin 4 31111110
Canberra 2 21010101
Hobart 3 21111101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Aug :
Macquarie Island 5 42011200
Casey 10 33322222
Mawson 19 53123253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 3311 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Aug 10 G0
10 Aug 10 G0
11 Aug 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 7 August
and is current for 8-9 Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 08-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctica region with isolated
periods of G1 in Mawson. Expected G1-G2 geomagnetic activity
on 08-Aug failed to eventuate. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 09-11 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal-fair Normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 08 08 2023 0105UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal-fair Normal Poor(PCA)
10 Aug Normal Normal Fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 08-Aug were
generally normal, with degraded conditions in polar regions due
to an S1 solar radiation storm event. Conditions in low to middle
latitudes are expected to be normal over 09-11 Aug. Degraded
conditions in polar regions is expected to continue over 09-Aug,
possibly returning to normal by 10-Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Aug 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Aug 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
10 Aug 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
11 Aug 105 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 77 was issued
on 7 August and is current for 8-9 Aug. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 78 was issued on 8 August and is current for 9-11 Aug.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 08-Aug were near
predicted values to 15% enhanced in the Australian region. Spread-F
was observed in Hobart and degraded conditions were observed
in Townsville. Scintillation was observed at Niue Island between
08/0906 - 0922 UT. Due to S1 solar radiation storm conditions,
degraded conditions have been observed in Antarctica and are
expected to continue over 09-Aug before returning to normal.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values over 09-11 Aug
with enhancements of 15% possible. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 470 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 163000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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