[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 07 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 8 09:30:09 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 0442UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 1615UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.4 1951UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
X1.5 2046UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 170/124
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Aug was R3, with four low-level
M-class solar flares and one X1 flare. AR3387 (N24W76, beta)
was responsible for the X1 flare at 07/2046 UT, although it appeared
AR3386 was contributing to the event at the same time as well
despite this region being mostly obscured as it has rotated over
the western limb. AR3386 was responsible for an M2 flare and
AR3387 was responsible for three M1 solar flares. There are currently
seven numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3387 has
grown over the past 24 hours and is currently the most complex
region on the solar disk. AR3389 (S11W69, beta) has also shown
some minor growth and all other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity it expected to be R0-R1 with a chance
for R2 over 08-10 Aug. Further R3 flares are possible but not
expected. The 10 MeV proton flux is currently enhanced but under
S1. A small enhancement was observed due to the R3 solar flare.
The flux is expected to continue to decline to background levels
over 08-10, but there is a slight chance for further enhancements.
A halo CME is visible from 07/2148 UT in association with the
R3 solar flare. Analysis is still ongoing to determine whether
there is an Earth-directed component, but a bulk of the ejecta
is directed southwest which suggests a glancing blow is at least
probable. A prominence eruption was observed from 07/1640 UT
near N20W90, possibly in association with the M1 solar flares
from AR3387. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective. The
solar wind speed on UT day 07-Aug was on a mild incline and ranged
between 330 to 490 km/s, although a sudden increase to 590 km/s
at 07/2230 UT. A minor shock was observed at 07/1155 UT, which
was likely the arrival of a glancing blow from a CME first observed
on 04-Aug. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
-9 to +8 nT. Bz was southward for several periods over 07-Aug,
although no significant geomagnetic activity was observed. The
solar wind speed is expected to increase on 08-Aug due to two
expected CME arrivals that were first observed on 05-Aug. A large
but faint coronal hole wind stream may cause further enhancements
to the solar wind speed by 10-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 21113133
Cocos Island 4 11112022
Darwin 6 21113122
Townsville 8 22113133
Learmonth 9 31113133
Alice Springs 6 21113122
Gingin 9 21103143
Canberra 7 22003033
Hobart 6 21003033
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Aug :
Macquarie Island 6 21004022
Casey 12 33223233
Mawson 30 45323256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1000 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Aug 30 G1-G2
09 Aug 12 G0, chance G1
10 Aug 12 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 7 August
and is current for 8-9 Aug. G0 geomagnetic activity was observed
in the Australian region on UT day 07-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctica region with some periods
of G1-G2 at Mawson. A CME first observed on 04-Aug arrived by
07/1155 UT, but it did not induce any significant geomagnetic
activity. Two CME impacts are expected on 08-Aug which may induce
G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions, with conditions possibly leading
into 09-Aug. Confidence is low regarding the impact, with these
CMEs possibly causing only minor glancing blows, or possibly
combining into a more significant impact. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 10-Aug, although isolated periods
of G1 are possible due to coronal hole wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2340UT 05/08, Ended at 0435UT 06/08
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
09 Aug Normal-fair Fair Fair
10 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 07-Aug were
generally normal, with some degradations are mid to high latitude
regions. HF communication conditions are expected to be degraded
over 08-09 Aug due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Conditions
may begin to recover by the end of 09-Aug, although further degradations
may be possible on 10-Aug due to potential coronal hole wind
stream effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Aug 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% depressed
09 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
10 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 76 was issued on
5 August and is current for 6-8 Aug. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 77 was issued on 7 August and is current for 8-9 Aug.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 07-Aug were near
predicted values to 15% enhanced in the Australian region. Spread-F
was observed in Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values to 15-20% depressed over 08-10 Aug
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 50400 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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