[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 06 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 7 09:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.5 1840UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 174/128
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity R1, chance of R2 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 168/122 166/120 164/118
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 6-Aug was at the R2 level with
an M5.5 flare at 6/1840UT produced by AR3386 (N11W85, beta).
In addition, solar activity was at the R1 level at the start
of the day due to the declining background from an X1.6 flare
at 5/2222UT. There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3386 has
been the most significant sunspot region over the last few days,
however it has almost completely rotated off the solar disk.
AR3394 (S20E21, beta) is the largest sunspot region on the solar
disk but appears magnetically simple despite some development
in its trailer spots over the UT day. AR3389 (S11W55, beta) also
showed some development but, likewise, remains magnetically simple.
An unnumbered region has recently rotated onto the solar disk
at N18E65 and has beta magnetic characteristics. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Far side region AR3372
is expected to return to the solar disk at around N25 over 7-8
Aug, this region was previously responsible for 11 M-class flares.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level, with a chance
of R2 on 7-Aug and R0-R1 over 8-9 Aug. An S1 solar radiation
storm event began at 6/0050UT, and ended at 6/0545UT. This event
is associated with the S1 event which was observed on 5-Aug.
The proton flux is currently elevated, with a slight rise observed
following the M5.5 flare at 6/1840UT. An S1 event is possible
on 7-Aug, but the risk will decrease over 8-9 Aug as AR3386 rotates
off the solar disk. A partial halo CME was observed associated
with the X1.6 flare at 5/2222UT, first observed at 5/2212UT in
LASCO C2 imagery. There is limited STEREO-A imagery for this
CME, modelling currently suggests an impact on 8-Aug at 1300UT
+/- 12 hours, however analysis is ongoing. A fast southwest directed
CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery from 6/1848UT, associated
with the M5.5 flare at 6/1840UT. Modelling suggests a possibility
of a glancing impact from this CME on 10-Aug at 0100UT +/- 12
hours, with any associated geomagnetic activity likely to be
minor. A slow filament lift off is visible in SDO and GOES SUVI
imagery from 6/0157UT at around S25E25. A disappearing filament
is visible in H-Alpha imagery from 6/1512UT at around N05W23.
No associated geoeffective CMEs have been observed following
these events. The solar wind speed was steady over 6-Aug, ranging
from 299 to 489 km/s and is currently at 370 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south
IMF range (Bz) was +6 nT to -3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase on 7-Aug due to an anticipated glancing impact from
a CME first observed on 4-Aug, combined with high speed wind
stream effects from a coronal hole in the southern hemisphere.
A further increase is expected on 8-Aug due to a pair of anticipated
impacts from CMEs first observed on 5-Aug. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated over 9-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 2 11100002
Townsville 2 11100012
Learmonth 0 01100000
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Gingin 1 00100011
Canberra 0 10000001
Hobart 0 10000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 12200110
Mawson 4 21100132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 30 5654 3213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 18 G0, chance of G1
08 Aug 30 G1-G2
09 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on 6-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions, with
a chance of G1 are expected on 7-Aug due to a possible glancing
blow from a CME first observed on 4-Aug, combined with high speed
wind stream effects from a coronal hole in the southern hemisphere.
G1-G2 conditions are expected on 8-Aug due to anticipated impacts
from two CMEs first observed on 5-Aug. G0 conditions are expected
on 9-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Poor Fair-poor Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1105UT 05/08, Ended at 2000UT 05/08
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2340UT 05/08, Ended at 0435UT 06/08
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
09 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 6-Aug were
poor at high latitudes, fair to poor at mid latitudes and normal
to fair at low latitudes for the first half of the day. Propagation
conditions recovered to mostly normal by the end of the day.
A polar cap absorption event was ongoing at the start of the
day and ended at 6/0435UT. Mostly normal conditions are expected
on 7-Aug, degradations are expected over 8-9 Aug due to geomagnetic
activity from multiple anticipated CME impacts. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible. PCA conditions are possible over the first half
of 7-Aug but aren't expected over 8-9 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 100 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
15%
09 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
15%
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 76 was issued on
5 August and is current for 6-8 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 6-Aug were near predicted monthly values in
the Australian region. Significant spread-F was observed in Canberra,
Hobart, Norfolk Island, Brisbane and Townsville, during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
on 7-Aug. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% depressed over 8-9 Aug due to geomagnetic activity from
multiple anticipated CME impacts. A recovery to near predicted
monthly values is expected in the second half of 9-Aug. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 92200 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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