[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 05 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 6 09:30:50 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0723UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.1 0936UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
X1.6 2222UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 176/130
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug
Activity R1, chance R2-R2 R1, chance R2-R3 R1, chance R2-R3
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 168/122 166/120
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Aug was R3. A long-duration
M1.5 (R1) flare was observed peaking at 0712 UT from AR3386 (N11W69,
beta-delta). While that flare was settling, an M2.1 (R1) solar
flare was observed at 0934 UT from AR3380, which is now behind
the western limb and the region is not visible. An X1.6 solar
flare was observed from 05/2155 UT from AR3386. There are currently
nine numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3386 has continued
to grow in complexity and has developed a delta spot. AR3387
(N24W49, beta) has also grown over the past 24 hours. All other
sunspot regions ar either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be R1 with a chance for R2-R3 over 06-08 Aug.
Associated with the long-duration M1.5 flare was a fast CME directed
to the southwest and an enhancement to the 10 MeV solar energetic
protons. An S1 solar radiation storm event began at 05/0820 UT,
peaked at 18 pfu and is currently near 10 pfu but under S1. Some
periods of S1-S2 solar radiation storm conditions may be expected
on 06-Aug. The CME was first observed at 05/0712 UT in SOHO imagery.
A filament at S10W60 erupted off the solar disk from 05/0601
UT which may have contributed to the ejecta of the CME. Analysis
indicates a glancing blow from this CME may be possible early
on 08-Aug. There are signs of a CME associated with the X1 solar
flare from 05/2155 UT, however there are not sufficient images
to confirm this at the time of writing. This event may cause
further enhanced solar energetic protons reaching S1-S2. A shock
to the solar wind was observed at 05/0209 UT, suggesting the
arrival of a weak halo CME first observed on 02-Aug. The solar
wind speed peaked at 579 km/s before falling to near 350 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) reached
24 nT at 05/0228 UT and the north-south IMF range (Bz) was +14
nT to -22 nT. Bz was predominantly oriented southward between
04/1320 and 05/1020 UT for a total of approximately 21 hours,
which included the time of the main phase of the geomagnetic
storm induced by the CME. The solar wind speed is expected to
remain near background levels over 06-Aug then possible increase
on 07-Aug due to a possible glancing blow from a CME first observed
on 04-Aug, before falling to background levels once more.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: G3
Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A K
Australian Region 17 45442101
Cocos Island 11 44332100
Darwin 18 45442102
Townsville 23 5544211-
Learmonth 20 55442100
Alice Springs 17 45442001
Gingin 15 54432000
Canberra 13 44342001
Hobart 15 44443000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Aug :
Macquarie Island 24 45554000
Casey 14 44433011
Mawson 38 75633112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 37
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 1122 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Aug 14 G0
07 Aug 20 G0, slight chance G1
08 Aug 20 G0-G1, slight chance isolated G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 3 August
and is current for 5-6 Aug. G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 05-Aug, due to the arrival
of a weak halo CME that was first observed on 02-Aug. G1-G3 geomagnetic
storm conditions were observed in the Antarctica region. Planetary
conditions very briefly reached G3 between 05/0516 - 0559 UT,
which caused the 3-hourly Kp period 0300-0600 UT to be registered
as G3. Additionally, the planetary conditions observed 3 periods
of G1 on 05-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 06-Aug.
G0, with a slight chance for G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 07-Aug due to a possible glancing blow from a CME first observed
on 04-Aug. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 08-Aug,
with a slight chance for isolated periods of G2, due to possible
glancing blows from a CMEs first observed on 05-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Poor Fair-poor Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1105UT 05/08, Ended at 2000UT 05/08
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Fair-poor Fair Poor
07 Aug Fair Fair Fair
08 Aug Normal-fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions began UT day 05-Aug
normal, but experienced degradations at all latitudes by local
night hours due to a geomagnetic storm. An S1 solar radiation
storm began at 05/1110 UT and in currently ongoing, contributing
to polar cap absorption (PCA). Poor to normal conditions are
expected over 06-Aug, with high latitudes in particular having
poor conditions. Fair to normal conditions are expected over
07-08 Aug, with some degradations possible late 07-Aug due to
anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
PCA conditions may continue into 06-Aug but are not expected
to continue into 07-Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Aug 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
07 Aug 100 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
08 Aug 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 75 was issued on 5 August
and is current for 5-6 Aug. ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning
76 was issued on 5 August and is current for 6-8 Aug. Maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 05-Aug began enhanced during
local morning hours but became depressed by 20% during local
night and dawn hours. Significant sporadic-E was observed in
Brisbane, Hobart, Niue Island, Cocos Islands and Darwin during
local night hours. Significant spread-F was observed at Canberra
and Hobart during local night hours. Weak to no ionospheric signals
were observed at Darwin, Hobart and Niue island during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be depressed up to 20% before
recovering to normal by the end of 06-Aug. Further mild degradations
may be observed on 07-Aug due to a glancing blow of a CME first
observed on 04-Aug, carrying into 08-Aug. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 90600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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