[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 04 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 5 09:30:51 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 0425UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 171/125
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 162/116 164/118
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Aug was R1, with a long
duration M1.9 solar flare peaking at 0422 UT. The solar flare
had a 2+ hour duration and came from region AR3386 (N11W55, beta),
which has shown growth over the padt 24 hours. There are currently
9 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3380 (S11W89),
which has produced many solar flares this week, is rotating over
the western solar limb and almost completely out of view. AR3392
(N10E03, beta-gamma) has shown some growth over the 24 hour period
but not yet produced any significant activity. All other regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be R0-R1 with a chance of R2 over 05-07 Aug. A CME was observed
at 04/0428 UT that was associated with the M1.9 solar flare.
A bulk of the ejecta was directed to the northwest but a glancing
blow may arrive by 07/1300 UT. The solar wind speed on UT day
04-Aug was steady until 0653 UT, when a weak shock was observed.
This may have been the arrival of a CME that was first observed
on 01-Aug. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 16 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+12 to -13 nT. Bz has been oriented southward intermittently
since 04/1325 UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 01222332
Cocos Island 7 11212331
Darwin 7 11212332
Townsville 8 02222332
Learmonth 7 01222332
Alice Springs 7 01222332
Gingin 7 01221332
Canberra 5 01122231
Hobart 5 01122231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Aug :
Macquarie Island 6 00022332
Casey 9 02322332
Mawson 19 02223364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 2213 2132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Aug 24 G0-G1, chance G2
06 Aug 14 G0, chance G1
07 Aug 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 3 August
and is current for 5-6 Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 04-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctica regio, with an isolated
period of G2 at Mawson. A weak shock was observed in the solar
wind at 04/0653 UT which may have been the arrival of a CME first
observed on 01-Aug. This CME is not expected to induce significant
geomagnetic activity. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on UT day 05-Aug with a chance of G2 due to the anticipated arrival
of another CME that was first observed on 02-Aug. A CME that
was first observed on 04-Aug may arrive on 07-Aug and has a chance
to induce G1 geomagnetic conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Fair-poor Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
06 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 04-Aug were
mostly normal, with some degradations at low latitudes during
local night hours. Normal to fair HF conditions are expected
over the early hours of UT day 05-Aug, but may become degraded
by the end of the UT going into 06-Aug due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
by 07-Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Aug 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Aug 100 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
07 Aug 100 Near predicted monthly values to 10% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 74 was issued on
4 August and is current for 4-6 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 04-Aug were near predicted values to 15% enhanced
in the Australian region. Strong sporadic-E was observed at many
low-latitude locations during local night hours: Townsville,
Cocos Islands, Darwin and Learmonth being affected. Spread-F
was observed in Hobart and Canberra during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 15% depressed
over 05-06 Aug due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. MUFs
are expected to return to near predicted values with mild enhancements
by 07-Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 22600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list