[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 03 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 4 09:30:52 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 1155UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 162/116
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Aug was R1, with one M2
solar flare at 1154 UT from AR3380 (S11W77, beta-gamma). There
are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3380
is currently near the western solar limb, making analysis of
this region challenging, however it appears to be becoming stable.
AR3386 (N11W44, beta) has shown some growth over the past 24
hours. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 with a chance of R2 over
04-06 Aug. No CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours. The solar
wind speed on UT day 03-Aug was generally steady and ranged between
322 and 391 km/s, and is currently near 340 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -4 nT. The solar wind is expected
to remain near background levels on UT day 04-Aug, then increase
over 05-06 Aug due to two anticipated CME impacts. A weak coronal
hole structure currently near W40 may also contribute to increased
wind speeds on these days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 12121100
Cocos Island 3 12121100
Darwin 4 22211101
Townsville 3 22111101
Learmonth 4 22221100
Alice Springs 2 12111100
Gingin 3 12211200
Canberra 3 11122100
Hobart 3 12122100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 11023000
Casey 6 23221111
Mawson 10 34411200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 2223 4432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Aug 12 G0
05 Aug 24 G0-G1, chance G2
06 Aug 18 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 3 August
and is current for 5-6 Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctica regions on UT day 03-Aug. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 04-Aug. G0-G1, with a
chance of G2, are expected on 05-Aug due to anticipated CME arrivals.
The first CME is expected to arrive early in the UT day 05-Aug,
and the second is expected to arrive later in the UT day, however
it is possible these CMEs may interact and arrive together. Any
geomagnetic impacts from these CME arrivals is expected to continue
into 06-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
06 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 03-Aug were
mostly normal. Some degradations were observed near low latitudes
during local night hours. Normal HF propagation conditions are
expected on 04-Aug, but some degradations may be observed over
05-06 Aug due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Aug 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Aug 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Aug 100 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 03-Aug were
near predicted values to 15% enhanced in the Australian region.
Spread-F was observed in Hobart. Strong sporadic-E was observed
at Darwin at 0700 UT, and weak sporadic-E was observed at Brisbane,
Canberra and Norfolk Island during local night hours. Scintillation
was observed at Niue Island and Weipa between 0831 and 1210 UT
on 03-Aug. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 15%
enhanced on 04-Aug, and near predicted values over 05-06 Aug.
Shortwave fadeout are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 10.5 p/cc Temp: 47200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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