[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 02 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 3 09:30:08 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0812UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1050UT possible lower European
M1.7 1452UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.3 1622UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 1915UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 173/127
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Aug was R1, with 5 low-level
M-class solar flares. Four of these solar flares originated from
AR3380 (S11W63, beta) and one originated from AR3386 (N11W31,
beta). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the
solar disk. AR3380, which has produced most of the day's solar
flares, has started to decay. AR3392 (N10E22, beta) has grown
rapidly but not produced any significant activity yet. Solar
activity is expected to be R1-R2 over 03-05 Aug. A large filament
showed signs of lifting off the solar disk near S10W20, near
the vicinity of AR3386 when it produced an M1.3 flare at 02/0812
UT. Some of the material appeared to fall back into the Sun,
but a weak partial halo CME was observed from 02/0936 associated
with this event. This CME is expected to arrive late in the UT
day 05-Aug, possibly early 06-Aug. The motion of the filament
appeared to cause a structural change to the solar corona that
has features consistent with a coronal hole, however this has
mostly become obscured now. A solar flare occurred on the southeastern
solar limb at 02/1822 UT from a region not yet in view. A CME
was observed associated with this flare from 1900 UT, but is
not expected to be geoeffective. No other significant CMEs were
observed. The solar wind speed on UT day was generally steady
and ranged between 367 and 432 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component
range was +10 to -9 nT. Bz was oriented southward between 02/0600UT
to 02/1540 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at
background levels on 03-Aug, and increase over 04-05 Aug due
to CME impacts and possibly coronal hole effects. The 10 MeV
proton flux is currently at background levels and not expected
to increase over 03-05 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 22133321
Cocos Island 7 12133221
Darwin 8 22133221
Townsville 9 22033322
Learmonth 11 22143322
Alice Springs 8 22033321
Gingin 11 11243331
Canberra 7 11033320
Hobart 9 11133421
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Aug :
Macquarie Island 17 01245521
Casey 11 33332321
Mawson 20 32332255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2211 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Aug 8 G0
04 Aug 12 G0, slight chance of G1
05 Aug 16 G0, slight chance of G1
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region on UT
day 02-Aug was G0, with isolated periods with a K-index of 4
at Learmonth, Gingin and Hobart. Geomagnetic conditions in the
Antarctica region were G0-G1. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be G0 on 03-Aug, and G0-G1 over 04-05 Aug. Two CMEs are expected
to impact on 05-Aug; one early in the UT day and one late in
the UT day. Both CMEs were reasonably faint, but there is a small
chance for isolated periods of G2 after the second arrival, possibly
leading into 06-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on UT day 02-Aug were mostly
normal. Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 03-04
Aug. Some degradations may be observed on 05-Aug due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Aug 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Aug 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
04 Aug 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Aug 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 73 was issued on
1 August and is current for 1-3 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 02-Aug were near predicted values to 30% enhanced,
particularly during local night hours. Spread-F was observed
at Hobart and sporadic-E was observed at Niue Island during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to
20% enhanced over 03-05 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 58800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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