[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 August 23 issued 2330 UT on 01 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 2 09:30:57 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0156UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.2 0447UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.6 0657UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.5 0909UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.4 1409UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.0 2151UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 175/129
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 1-Aug was at the R1 level,
with an M1.2 flare at 1/0203UT, an M2.2 flare at 1/0447UT, an
M1.3 flare at 1/0538UT, an M3.6 at 1/0657UT, an M1.5 flare at
1/0909UT, an M1.4 flare at 1/1408UT and an M1.1 flare at 1/2151UT.
All M-class flares were produced by AR3380 (S11W49, beta-gamma-delta).
There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3380 and is the largest
and most magnetically complex region on the solar disk. AR3380
was also responsible for seven M-class flares on 1-Aug, and showed
spot development over the UT day. AR3391 (N24E28, alpha) and
AR3392 (N10E36, beta) have also shown spot development in the
past 24 hours. An unnumbered region has recently rotated on to
the solar disk at around N17E61 with alpha magnetic complexity.
All other regions were either stable or in decay over the UT
day. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level, with a
chance of R2 over 2-3 Aug. Solar activity is expected to be at
the R1 level on 4-Aug. The 10 MeV proton flux declined to background
levels over 1-Aug. There is a chance of elevated flux on 2-4
Aug due to AR3380's proximity to the western limb and its history
of M-class flaring. A faint, slow partial halo CME is visible
in LASCO C2 imagery from 31/2324UT, likely associated with a
filament lift off observed at 31/1500UT. Modelling suggests this
CME has a geoeffective component which will impact on 4-Aug at
around 1900UT +/- 12 hours. This CME is very slow and diffuse,
any impact is likely to be minor. No other geoeffective CMEs
were observed on 1-Aug. The solar wind speed was steady on 1-Aug,
with a small increase at around 1/1010UT. The wind speed ranged
between 344 to 420 km/s and is currently near 385 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. A small
impulse in the IMF Bt was observed at 1/1115UT. This, combined
with the small increase in solar wind speed at 1/1010UT, may
indicate the anticipated impact from a CME first observed on
28-Jul has occurred. Assuming the anticipated CME impact occurred
at around 1/1115UT, the solar wind speed is expected to remain
light over 2-4 Aug. There is the chance of an increase in the
solar wind speed on 2-Aug if this CME impact has not yet occurred.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 11112321
Cocos Island 4 11112220
Darwin 6 12112322
Townsville 6 11112322
Learmonth 7 22222321
Alice Springs 6 12112321
Gingin 5 11212221
Canberra 3 01102211
Hobart 3 11102211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 00103210
Casey 7 23212222
Mawson 18 43322353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1132 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Aug 18 G0, chance of G1
03 Aug 8 G0
04 Aug 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 42 was issued on 30 July and
is current for 1-2 Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 1-Aug. Mostly G0 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 2-4
Aug, with a chance of G1 on 2-Aug due to the chance of a late
impact from a CME first observed on 28-Jul and a chance of G1
on 4-Aug due to an anticipated weak impact from a CME first observed
on 31-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on UT day 1-Aug were mostly
normal. Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 2-4
Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Aug 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 103
Aug 88
Sep 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Aug 110 Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Aug 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 73 was issued on
1 August and is current for 1-3 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 1-Aug were near predicted monthly values with
enhancements of up to 15% observed in the southern Australian
region. Spread F was observed at Hobart and Canberra during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
on 2-Aug. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced on 3-4 Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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