[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 April 23 issued 2330 UT on 13 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 14 09:30:58 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 160/114
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 168/122 168/122 168/122
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Apr was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently nine numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3272 (S21W22, beta)
is the largest region on the solar disk and has shown some decay
in its trailer spots. AR3279 (S19E48, beta) has exhibited growth
in its intermediate spots over the UT day. AR3281 (S24E67, beta)
recently rotated over the eastern limb and has shown growth in
its leader spot. AR3280 (S08W25, beta) recently appeared on the
solar disk and has grown rapidly since. Newly numbered AR3282
(N11E67, beta) has exhibited spot development since appearing
on the solar disk. The background level of X-ray flux remains
at C-class levels. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1
level over 14-16 Apr, with a chance of R2. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 13-Apr
was mostly stable, ranging from 380 to 430 km/s, and is currently
near 385 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+8 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed may increase over 14-16 Apr
due to small coronal holes in the northern and southern solar
hemispheres.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 22001212
Cocos Island 3 22010111
Darwin 4 22101212
Townsville 5 22101222
Learmonth 4 32000211
Alice Springs 4 22100212
Gingin 4 32000122
Canberra 2 21001111
Hobart 4 22001221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Apr :
Macquarie Island 4 41000110
Casey 8 34300211
Mawson 13 44100243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1010 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Apr 14 G0
15 Apr 10 G0
16 Apr 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on 13-Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 14-16 Apr, with a slight chance of increased geomagnetic
activity on 14-Apr due to possible weak CME component impacts
from recently erupting solar filaments.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 13-Apr.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 14-16 Apr. Mild
degradations at middle to high latitudes are possible on 14-Apr
due to an anticipated mild increase in geomagnetic activity,
particularly during local night hours. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Apr 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 85% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20-25% during local night and after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 132
Apr 84
May 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Apr 125 15-25% above predicted monthly values
15 Apr 125 15-25% above predicted monthly values
16 Apr 125 15-25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 13-Apr in
the Australian region were enhanced by 15-45%. MUFs are expected
to be 15-25% enhanced over 14-16 Apr. Mild degradations are possible
during local night hours on 14-Apr, due to an expected mild increase
in geomagnetic activity. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 70800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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