[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 April 23 issued 2330 UT on 12 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 13 09:30:12 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Apr was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently eight numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3272 (S21W09, beta-gamma)
is the most magnetically complex region and has shown some decay
in its trailer spots over the UT day. Newly numbered region AR3279
(S19E61, beta) has recently rotated onto the disk and has exhibited
growth in its intermediate spots. AR3274 (S07W25, alpha) has
shown some recent redevelopment of its spots. AR3278 (N13W32,
beta) has exhibited minor growth but remains unremarkable. All
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. The background
level of X-ray flux remains at C-class levels. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R1 level over 13-15 Apr, with a chance
of R2. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective.
A filament was observed lifting off the solar disk in H-alpha
imagery from S40W70 at 12/0057UT. A subsequent CME was observed
in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 12/0412UT. This CME is not
considered to contain an Earth-directed component. The solar
wind speed on UT day 12-Apr was mostly stable, ranging from 325
to 405 km/s, and is currently near 385 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed may increase
over 13-15 Apr due to small coronal holes in the northern and
southern solar hemispheres.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11101101
Cocos Island 2 12110100
Darwin 3 21111101
Townsville 3 11102111
Learmonth 3 12102101
Alice Springs 1 00101101
Gingin 2 02201100
Canberra 1 01001100
Hobart 1 01101100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Apr :
Macquarie Island 28 44701004
Casey 6 23321100
Mawson 3 12211100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 0131 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Apr 16 G0, slight chance G1
14 Apr 14 G0, slight chance G1
15 Apr 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on 12-Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 13-15 Apr, with a slight chance of isolated G1
periods expected over 13-14 Apr due to possible weak CME component
impacts from recently erupting solar filaments.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Generally normal HF propagation conditions were observed
on 12-Apr. Mild degradations at middle to high latitudes are
possible on 13-14 Apr due to an anticipated mild increase in
geomagnetic activity, particularly during local night hours.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Apr 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 132
Apr 84
May 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Apr 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Apr 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Apr 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 12-Apr in
the Australian region were enhanced by 15-25%. Spread F was observed
during local night hours at Canberra and Hobart. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 13-15
Apr. Mild degradations are possible during local night hours
on 13-14 Apr, due to an expected mild increase in geomagnetic
activity. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 126000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list