[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 April 23 issued 2330 UT on 14 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 15 09:30:09 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1618UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 171/125
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 180/133 178/131
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Apr reached R1 levels, with
an isolated M1.1 solar flare from AR3282 at 14/1618UT. There
are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3280
(S10W42, beta-gamma), AR3281 (S22E56, beta) and AR3283 have all
grown over the 24-hour period. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0-R1 levels over 15-17 Apr, with a chance of isolated R2 flares.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 14-Apr. The solar wind
speed was on a generally steady trend, and ranged between 412
- 345 km/s, and is currently near 360 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) reached 8 nT, and the north-south
IMF component ranged between +7 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain near background levels over 15-17 Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 11112111
Cocos Island 2 12111100
Darwin 4 11112112
Townsville 4 21112112
Learmonth 3 21112110
Alice Springs 3 11112102
Gingin 3 11111111
Canberra 2 01112101
Hobart 3 11122101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Apr :
Macquarie Island 8 00135100
Casey 7 23322101
Mawson 9 42223201
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 3200 0221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Apr 10 G0
16 Apr 8 G0
17 Apr 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 14-Apr. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 at Macquarie
Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 15-17 Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 14-Apr.
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 15-17
Apr. Mild degradations at high latitudes are possible on 15-Apr
due to a possible mild increase in geomagnetic activity. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Apr 129
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 132
Apr 84
May 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Apr 125 15-30% above predicted monthly values
16 Apr 125 15-30% above predicted monthly values
17 Apr 125 15-30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on
14 April and is current for 14-16 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 14-Apr in the Australian region were enhanced
by 15-40%. MUFs are expected to be 15-30% enhanced over 15-17
Apr. Mild degradations are possible during local night hours
on 15-Apr, due to a possible mild increase in geomagnetic activity.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible. Scintillation was observed
at Niue from 14/1129-1150UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 83400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list