[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 April 23 issued 2330 UT on 07 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 8 09:30:10 EST 2023


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Apr             09 Apr             10 Apr
Activity     R0, chance R1      R0, chance R1      R0, chance R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Apr was at the R0 level, 
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently two 
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered 
region. AR3272 (S21E56, beta) has exhibited some spot development 
over the UT day. AR3270 (S24W65, beta) has decayed and will soon 
rotate over the western limb. An unnumbered region recently appeared 
near S12E28 (alpha) and is stable and unremarkable. Solar activity 
is expected to be at the R0 level over 08-10 Apr, with a chance 
of R1. Several CMEs were observed on UT day 07-Apr. A southwest 
directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph 
imagery from 07/1236UT. This CME is associated with a partial 
filament eruption visible in H-alpha and SDO imagery at ~S30W10 
from 07/0839UT. Modelling indicates this CME contains an Earth-directed 
component, with an impact to Earth's magnetosphere expected early 
on 11-Apr. Several CMEs were also observed to the southeast early 
in the UT day, but are considered farside events and not geoeffective. 
An additional southeast CME observed at 07/1936UT is also considered 
to be a farside event. A northwest CME was observed in STEREO-A 
imagery from 07/1809UT. This CME is associated with a filament 
eruption visible in H-alpha imagery from 07/1712UT. Modelling 
indicates this CME is not Earth-directed. No other Earth-directed 
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 07-Apr 
was mostly stable, ranging from 395 to 425 km/s, and is currently 
near 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, 
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
+4 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline over 
08-09 Apr before possibly increasing on 10-Apr due to a small 
equatorial coronal hole currently crossing the central meridian.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: G0

Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22222001
      Cocos Island         2   22111000
      Darwin               4   22221001
      Townsville           5   22222011
      Learmonth            4   22212001
      Alice Springs        4   22222001
      Gingin               5   32212001
      Canberra             3   22122000
      Hobart               4   22122001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     8   22342010
      Casey                8   33322011
      Mawson              24   55422215

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   1113 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Apr     6    G0
09 Apr     6    G0
10 Apr     6    G0

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 7 April and 
is current for 10-11 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on 07-Apr. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region, with some isolated periods 
of G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected 
over 08-10 Apr.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 07-Apr. 
Normal HF conditions are expected over 08-10 Apr. Isolated shortwave 
fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Apr   122

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      132
Apr      84
May      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Apr   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Apr   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Apr   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 
6 April and is current for 6-8 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 07-Apr in the Australian region were enhanced 
by 20-35%. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to 15% enhanced over 08-10 Apr. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are 
possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 391 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    57800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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