[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 April 23 issued 2330 UT on 07 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 8 09:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Apr was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently two
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3272 (S21E56, beta) has exhibited some spot development
over the UT day. AR3270 (S24W65, beta) has decayed and will soon
rotate over the western limb. An unnumbered region recently appeared
near S12E28 (alpha) and is stable and unremarkable. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 08-10 Apr, with a chance
of R1. Several CMEs were observed on UT day 07-Apr. A southwest
directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph
imagery from 07/1236UT. This CME is associated with a partial
filament eruption visible in H-alpha and SDO imagery at ~S30W10
from 07/0839UT. Modelling indicates this CME contains an Earth-directed
component, with an impact to Earth's magnetosphere expected early
on 11-Apr. Several CMEs were also observed to the southeast early
in the UT day, but are considered farside events and not geoeffective.
An additional southeast CME observed at 07/1936UT is also considered
to be a farside event. A northwest CME was observed in STEREO-A
imagery from 07/1809UT. This CME is associated with a filament
eruption visible in H-alpha imagery from 07/1712UT. Modelling
indicates this CME is not Earth-directed. No other Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 07-Apr
was mostly stable, ranging from 395 to 425 km/s, and is currently
near 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+4 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline over
08-09 Apr before possibly increasing on 10-Apr due to a small
equatorial coronal hole currently crossing the central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 22222001
Cocos Island 2 22111000
Darwin 4 22221001
Townsville 5 22222011
Learmonth 4 22212001
Alice Springs 4 22222001
Gingin 5 32212001
Canberra 3 22122000
Hobart 4 22122001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Apr :
Macquarie Island 8 22342010
Casey 8 33322011
Mawson 24 55422215
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1113 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Apr 6 G0
09 Apr 6 G0
10 Apr 6 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 7 April and
is current for 10-11 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on 07-Apr. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with some isolated periods
of G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 08-10 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 07-Apr.
Normal HF conditions are expected over 08-10 Apr. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Apr 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night and after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 132
Apr 84
May 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Apr 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Apr 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Apr 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on
6 April and is current for 6-8 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 07-Apr in the Australian region were enhanced
by 20-35%. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 08-10 Apr. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 57800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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