[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 April 23 issued 2330 UT on 08 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 9 09:30:10 EST 2023


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.9    0146UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Apr             10 Apr             11 Apr
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Apr was at the R1 level, 
due to a M2.9 flare from AR3272 (S21E43, beta-gamma) at 08/0146UT. 
Several C-class flares were also observed, all of which were 
produced by AR3272. There are currently two numbered sunspot 
regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. 
AR3272 is the most magnetically complex region and has exhibited 
spot development over the UT day, particularly in its intermediate 
spots. AR3270 (S24W78, beta) is now rotating over the western 
limb. An unnumbered region is visible at S07E30 (alpha) and is 
stable and unremarkable. Solar activity is expected to be at 
R0-R1 levels over 09-11 Apr. Several CMEs were observed, but 
none are considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT 
day 08-Apr declined, ranging from 325 to 445 km/s, and is currently 
near 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, 
Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
+5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at background 
levels on 09-Apr before possibly increasing on 10-Apr due to 
a small equatorial coronal hole now rotating towards a geoeffective 
position.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: G0

Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   22110001
      Cocos Island         1   12000000
      Darwin               2   21110001
      Townsville           3   22110002
      Learmonth            2   22110100
      Alice Springs        2   21110001
      Gingin               2   22100101
      Canberra             1   11010001
      Hobart               2   12110000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   01110000
      Casey                7   33320101
      Mawson              10   43322202

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2321 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Apr     6    G0
10 Apr     6    G0
11 Apr    18    G0-G1

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 8 April and 
is current for 11-12 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian and Antarctic regions on 08-Apr. G0 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected over 09-10 Apr. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions 
are expected on 11-Apr due to the combined effects of a CME impact 
from a CME first observed on 07-Apr and coronal hole high speed 
wind stream effects from a small equatorial coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 07-Apr. 
Normal HF conditions are expected over 09-10 Apr. Mild degradations 
at middle to high latitudes are possible on 11-Apr due to an 
expected increase in geomagnetic activity. Isolated shortwave 
fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Apr   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20-25% during local night and after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20-25% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      132
Apr      84
May      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Apr   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Apr   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Apr   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 08-Apr in 
the Australian region were enhanced by 15-25%. Sporadic E was 
observed at Brisbane during local night. MUFs are expected to 
be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 09-11 Apr. 
Mild degradations are possible on 11-Apr due to expected increase 
in geomagnetic activity. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 407 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    83800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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