[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 April 23 issued 2330 UT on 08 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 9 09:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.9 0146UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Apr was at the R1 level,
due to a M2.9 flare from AR3272 (S21E43, beta-gamma) at 08/0146UT.
Several C-class flares were also observed, all of which were
produced by AR3272. There are currently two numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region.
AR3272 is the most magnetically complex region and has exhibited
spot development over the UT day, particularly in its intermediate
spots. AR3270 (S24W78, beta) is now rotating over the western
limb. An unnumbered region is visible at S07E30 (alpha) and is
stable and unremarkable. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0-R1 levels over 09-11 Apr. Several CMEs were observed, but
none are considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT
day 08-Apr declined, ranging from 325 to 445 km/s, and is currently
near 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at background
levels on 09-Apr before possibly increasing on 10-Apr due to
a small equatorial coronal hole now rotating towards a geoeffective
position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 22110001
Cocos Island 1 12000000
Darwin 2 21110001
Townsville 3 22110002
Learmonth 2 22110100
Alice Springs 2 21110001
Gingin 2 22100101
Canberra 1 11010001
Hobart 2 12110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 01110000
Casey 7 33320101
Mawson 10 43322202
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2321 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Apr 6 G0
10 Apr 6 G0
11 Apr 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 8 April and
is current for 11-12 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic regions on 08-Apr. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 09-10 Apr. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 11-Apr due to the combined effects of a CME impact
from a CME first observed on 07-Apr and coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects from a small equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
11 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 07-Apr.
Normal HF conditions are expected over 09-10 Apr. Mild degradations
at middle to high latitudes are possible on 11-Apr due to an
expected increase in geomagnetic activity. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Apr 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20-25% during local night and after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20-25% during local night and after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 132
Apr 84
May 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Apr 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Apr 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Apr 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 08-Apr in
the Australian region were enhanced by 15-25%. Sporadic E was
observed at Brisbane during local night. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 09-11 Apr.
Mild degradations are possible on 11-Apr due to expected increase
in geomagnetic activity. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 83800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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