[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 April 23 issued 2331 UT on 06 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 7 09:31:06 EST 2023


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.0    0554UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 137/91


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Apr             08 Apr             09 Apr
Activity     R0,chance R1-R2    R0,chance R1-R2    R0,chance R1-R2 
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Apr was at the R1 level 
due to an M3 flare at 06/0553UT from AR3272(S20E74, beta). This 
is a new region that has recently rotated onto the solar disk, 
with the regions trailer spots still rotating into view. The 
other solar region of note, AR3270(S25W56, beta), which is currently 
the largest region on the disk has remained relatively quiet 
producing a C3.9 flare at 06/1400UT, and continues to simplify. 
There are currently two numbered sunspot regions visible on the 
solar disk. Solar activity is expected to be at R0 levels, with 
the chance of isolated R1-R2 events over 07-09 Apr, primarily 
due to AR3272. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. Frequent 
narrow non Earth directed CME activity was observed off the south 
east solar limb during the first half of the UT day, which appeared 
to be associated with south east limb prominence activity at 
solar latitude S40-60 (GOES SUVI). Two solar filament eruptions 
have been observed in GONG H-alpha imagery. The first filament 
erupted from the disk at 06/0421UT located at S40E18 but did 
not appear to have an associated CME. Another solar filament 
located at S30W40, just to the south east of AR3270, erupted 
at 06/1430UT and also did not appear to be followed by a CME. 
The solar wind speed on UT day 06-Apr was variable but steady, 
ranging from 378 to 421 km/s, and is currently near 400km/s. 
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5 
nT. Bz fluctuated mildly southward during the interval 06/06-18UT. 
A small equatorial coronal hole is approaching the solar central 
meridian, which may moderately increase the solar wind speed 
during 10-11 Apr.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: G0

Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   11143131
      Cocos Island         4   121-1130
      Darwin               7   21133122
      Townsville          10   21243132
      Learmonth           12   22144231
      Alice Springs        9   11143131
      Gingin              10   12143231
      Canberra             9   11143131
      Hobart               9   11143131    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    18   11165121
      Casey               12   33333231
      Mawson              18   33222262

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   3322 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Apr     6    G0
08 Apr     6    G0
09 Apr     6    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on 06-Apr, with a brief mild increase in geomagnetic activity 
around local midnight, probably in association with mild southward 
IMF conditions. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region, with periods of G1-G2 observed at Macquarie 
Island and an isolated period of G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected over 07-09 Apr.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal

COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 06-Apr, 
with high latitude HF conditions degraded at times. Normal HF 
conditions are expected over 07-09 Apr.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Apr   124

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      132
Apr      84
May      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Apr   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Apr   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Apr   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 
6 April and is current for 6-8 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 06-Apr in the Australian region were enhanced 
by 15-35%. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night 
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to 15% enhanced over 07-09 Apr. Isolated fadeouts possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 484 km/sec  Density:    8.8 p/cc  Temp:   276000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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