[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 April 23 issued 2331 UT on 06 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 7 09:31:06 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.0 0554UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr
Activity R0,chance R1-R2 R0,chance R1-R2 R0,chance R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Apr was at the R1 level
due to an M3 flare at 06/0553UT from AR3272(S20E74, beta). This
is a new region that has recently rotated onto the solar disk,
with the regions trailer spots still rotating into view. The
other solar region of note, AR3270(S25W56, beta), which is currently
the largest region on the disk has remained relatively quiet
producing a C3.9 flare at 06/1400UT, and continues to simplify.
There are currently two numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk. Solar activity is expected to be at R0 levels, with
the chance of isolated R1-R2 events over 07-09 Apr, primarily
due to AR3272. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. Frequent
narrow non Earth directed CME activity was observed off the south
east solar limb during the first half of the UT day, which appeared
to be associated with south east limb prominence activity at
solar latitude S40-60 (GOES SUVI). Two solar filament eruptions
have been observed in GONG H-alpha imagery. The first filament
erupted from the disk at 06/0421UT located at S40E18 but did
not appear to have an associated CME. Another solar filament
located at S30W40, just to the south east of AR3270, erupted
at 06/1430UT and also did not appear to be followed by a CME.
The solar wind speed on UT day 06-Apr was variable but steady,
ranging from 378 to 421 km/s, and is currently near 400km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5
nT. Bz fluctuated mildly southward during the interval 06/06-18UT.
A small equatorial coronal hole is approaching the solar central
meridian, which may moderately increase the solar wind speed
during 10-11 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A K
Australian Region 9 11143131
Cocos Island 4 121-1130
Darwin 7 21133122
Townsville 10 21243132
Learmonth 12 22144231
Alice Springs 9 11143131
Gingin 10 12143231
Canberra 9 11143131
Hobart 9 11143131
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Apr :
Macquarie Island 18 11165121
Casey 12 33333231
Mawson 18 33222262
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3322 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Apr 6 G0
08 Apr 6 G0
09 Apr 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 06-Apr, with a brief mild increase in geomagnetic activity
around local midnight, probably in association with mild southward
IMF conditions. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with periods of G1-G2 observed at Macquarie
Island and an isolated period of G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 07-09 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
08 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
09 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 06-Apr,
with high latitude HF conditions degraded at times. Normal HF
conditions are expected over 07-09 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Apr 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-35%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25-30%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-25%.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20%
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 132
Apr 84
May 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Apr 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Apr 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Apr 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on
6 April and is current for 6-8 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 06-Apr in the Australian region were enhanced
by 15-35%. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 07-09 Apr. Isolated fadeouts possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 276000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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