[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 April 23 issued 2331 UT on 05 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 6 09:31:15 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Apr was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently three
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. A new small
region has emerged AR3271(S17W27, alpha). AR3270 (S24W23, beta)
currently the largest region on the disk, is showing signs of
overall decay and magnetic simplification. Other regions are
unremarkable. A new region appears about to rotate onto the solar
disk at solar latitude S25 (SDO94 imagery). Solar activity is
expected to be at R0 levels, with the chance of R1 over 06-08
Apr, mostly due to the region just behind the solar SE limb.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A south east directed
(away from the Earth) CME was observed from 05/0448UT in association
with a limb prominence eruption. There are a number of solar
filaments on the solar disk but all seem currently relatively
stable. The solar wind speed on UT day 05-Apr declined, ranging
from 405 to 534 km/s, and is currently near 405km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -4 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to continue to decline. A small equatorial
coronal hole is visible in the eastern solar hemisphere at solar
longitude E30.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 22123221
Cocos Island 5 21112221
Darwin 6 22123112
Townsville 8 22133221
Learmonth 10 22233322
Alice Springs 6 21123221
Gingin 9 21223332
Canberra 7 21133221
Hobart 10 22234221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Apr :
Macquarie Island 11 22234321
Casey 13 33433222
Mawson 41 53433475
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 4322 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 8 G0
07 Apr 6 G0
08 Apr 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 05-Apr. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1 and G3 observed
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 06-08
Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 05-Apr.
Normal HF conditions are expected over 06-08 Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45-60%
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-30%
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25-40%
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 132
Apr 84
May 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Apr 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Apr 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 05-Apr in
the Australian region were enhanced by 15-60%. Spread F was observed
at Hobart and Perth during local night hours. Spread F was observed
at Darwin 05/1545-1650UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 06-08 Apr. Ionospheric scintillation
was observed at Darwin 05/1506-1530UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 502 km/sec Density: 10.3 p/cc Temp: 303000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list