[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 April 23 issued 2331 UT on 04 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 5 09:31:12 EST 2023


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Apr             06 Apr             07 Apr
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Apr was at the R0 level, 
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently four 
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3270 (S24W23, 
beta-gamma) remains the most magnetically complex region and 
has exhibited spot development over the UT day, particularly 
in its intermediate spots. Newly numbered region AR3271 (S17W15, 
alpha) recently appeared on the solar disk and is stable and 
unremarkable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or 
in decay. The background level of X-ray flux is currently at 
B-class levels. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels 
over 05-07 Apr. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The 
solar wind speed on UT day 04-Apr was mostly stable, ranging 
from 485 to 550 km/s, and is currently near 490 km/s. The peak 
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the 
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to decline over 05-07 Apr due to waning 
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from a pair of small 
coronal holes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: G0

Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   33222122
      Cocos Island         4   22111121
      Darwin               7   33221121
      Townsville          10   34222122
      Learmonth            7   32222122
      Alice Springs        7   32222122
      Gingin               8   23222132
      Canberra             8   33222022
      Hobart               7   23222122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    11   23433021
      Casey               19   45433132
      Mawson              25   45432145

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   3122 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Apr    12    G0
06 Apr     8    G0
07 Apr     6    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on 04-Apr. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1 observed 
at Casey and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 
05-07 Apr. Geomagnetic 27 day recurrence patterns suggest a mild 
increase in geomagnetic activity is possible on 05-Apr.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 04-Apr. 
Normal HF conditions are expected over 05-07 Apr.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Apr   128

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20-25% during local night and after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15-25% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      132
Apr      84
May      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Apr   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Apr   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Apr   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 04-Apr in 
the Australian region were enhanced by 15-25%. Spread F was observed 
at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 05-07 Apr.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 495 km/sec  Density:    8.8 p/cc  Temp:   252000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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