[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 April 23 issued 2331 UT on 04 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 5 09:31:12 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Apr 06 Apr 07 Apr
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Apr was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently four
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3270 (S24W23,
beta-gamma) remains the most magnetically complex region and
has exhibited spot development over the UT day, particularly
in its intermediate spots. Newly numbered region AR3271 (S17W15,
alpha) recently appeared on the solar disk and is stable and
unremarkable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. The background level of X-ray flux is currently at
B-class levels. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
over 05-07 Apr. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The
solar wind speed on UT day 04-Apr was mostly stable, ranging
from 485 to 550 km/s, and is currently near 490 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to decline over 05-07 Apr due to waning
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from a pair of small
coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 33222122
Cocos Island 4 22111121
Darwin 7 33221121
Townsville 10 34222122
Learmonth 7 32222122
Alice Springs 7 32222122
Gingin 8 23222132
Canberra 8 33222022
Hobart 7 23222122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Apr :
Macquarie Island 11 23433021
Casey 19 45433132
Mawson 25 45432145
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 3122 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Apr 12 G0
06 Apr 8 G0
07 Apr 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 04-Apr. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1 observed
at Casey and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
05-07 Apr. Geomagnetic 27 day recurrence patterns suggest a mild
increase in geomagnetic activity is possible on 05-Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 04-Apr.
Normal HF conditions are expected over 05-07 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Apr 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20-25% during local night and after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15-25% during local night and after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 132
Apr 84
May 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Apr 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Apr 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Apr 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 04-Apr in
the Australian region were enhanced by 15-25%. Spread F was observed
at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 05-07 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 495 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 252000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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