[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 April 23 issued 2330 UT on 03 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 4 09:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Apr was at the R0 level,
with low level C-class flares only. There are currently four
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3270 (S24W10,
beta-gamma-delta) is the most magnetically complex region and
has continued to exhibit spot development since appearing on
the solar disk on 02-Apr. AR3266 (N09W23, beta) has shown some
spot growth over the UT day. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 04-06 Apr. A partial halo CME was observed, visible
in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 03/0748UT.
The bulk of the CME is directed to the northwest. This CME is
considered a farside event and therefore not geoeffective. An
additional narrow southwest CME was observed in STEREO-A imagery
from 03/2009UT. Further analysis will be conducted when more
imagery becomes available to determine if this CME contains an
Earth-directed component. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been
observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 03-Apr was mostly stable,
ranging from 445 to 540 km/s, and is currently near 495 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -6
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over
04-06 Apr due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects from a pair of small coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A K
Australian Region 10 22223332
Cocos Island 6 22112320
Darwin 8 21223322
Townsville 9 22123332
Learmonth 10 22123333
Alice Springs 10 22223332
Gingin 8 21122332
Canberra 10 21233332
Hobart 12 22233432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Apr :
Macquarie Island 19 21155432
Casey 12 33332322
Mawson 34 64423455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14 4432 2113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Apr 10 G0
05 Apr 12 G0
06 Apr 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 03-Apr. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G2 observed
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 04-06
Apr. Geomagnetic 27 day recurrence patterns suggest a mild increase
in geomagnetic activity is possible on 05-Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 03-Apr.
Normal HF conditions are expected over 04-06 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Apr 138
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20-40% during local night and after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25-30% during local night and after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20-30% during local night and after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 132
Apr 84
May 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Apr 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Apr 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Apr 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 03-Apr in
the Australian region were enhanced by 20-30%. Spread F was observed
at Hobart and Perth during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 04-06
Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 553 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 191000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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