[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 April 23 issued 2331 UT on 02 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 3 09:31:22 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Apr was at the R0 level
with no significant flare activity. There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. A new developing region has
emerged at S23W01 numbered AR3270. This region has rapidly emerged
in the past 12 hours and flare activity may increase if this
region continues to rapidly grow. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0-R1 level over 2-4 Apr, with the chance for R1
flares from the newly emerging region. A section of a solar filament
centred at S10E30 slowly erupted during the period 02/05-08UT
(GONG Halpha). No Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A rather
narrow south east directed CME is visible from 02/1236UT (LASCO
C2 imagery), as the filament eruption was quite slow it is possible
this non Earth directed CME is related to the erupting filament
section. The solar wind speed on UT day 02-Apr was steady with
a slight decreasing trend ranging from 500 to 600 km/s, and is
currently near 520 km/s. The solar wind is mildly elevated due
to a pair of small coronal holes. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to decline
over 03-Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 22231012
Cocos Island 6 23221012
Darwin 5 22221012
Townsville 7 22331012
Learmonth 7 32231012
Alice Springs 7 22331012
Gingin 6 32221022
Canberra 6 22231012
Hobart 7 22331012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Apr :
Macquarie Island 17 33551022
Casey 16 44433023
Mawson 34 45454136
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 2112 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Apr 8 G0
04 Apr 8 G0
05 Apr 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 02-Apr. In the Antarctic region G1 periods were observed
at Macquarie Island and isolated G1 and G2 periods were observed
at Mawson. G0 conditions observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 3-5 Apr. Geomagnetic 27 day recurrence patterns
suggest a mild increase in geomagnetic activity is possible on
05-Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were generally observed
on 2-Apr, with periods of degraded conditions at high latitudes.
Normal HF conditions are expected 3-5 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Apr 129
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-30% during local day.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35-85%
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Absorption observed at Mawson.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 132
Apr 84
May 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Apr 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Apr 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Apr 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 02-Apr in
the Australian region were enhanced by 15-85%. Spread F was observed
at Hobart and Perth during local night hours. Strongly enhanced
conditions were observed at Niue. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 528 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 202000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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